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PUNE: The third wave of Covid-19 is unlikely to be as severe as the second and India is now in the endemic stage of the disease, prominent virologists have said.
Dr Gagandeep Kang, a member of the Covid-19 task force and professor at Christian Medical College, Vellore, told TOI that she couldn’t really see a big third wave in the next two months with the existing variants. But, she said, there could be small waves limited to certain geographies. “Delhi, in all probability, has seen four waves. A wave is an increase in cases followed by a decrease over a relatively short period of time in a defined geography. We are unlikely to see a large increase in cases in the third wave as in the second due to the lower number of susceptible people and the lack of new variants, ”she said.
Kang said she wasn’t saying there wouldn’t be a third wave even with the existing variants, but it would be a smaller one in the smaller regions.
She said earlier that there had been a lot of infections and a large number of people had gotten sick because everyone was susceptible. “Now, with fewer susceptible people, there would be an increase in infections without an increase in the number of sick people. This is a decoupling between infection and disease because people are protected against serious illness due to a previous infection or vaccination, ”she said.
Kang said that an endemic is a disease that is constantly present at a high or low frequency, which may differ by geographic area. “Given that the virus has been here for over 18 months, with two-thirds of the population already infected in June / July and the cases persisting, we can reasonably say that we have reached the endemic stage,” she said. declared.
Kang said an increase in the number of cases, even in endemic disease, depended on environmental conditions and changes in behavior. Seasonal fluctuations also affect endemic disease.
Jacob John, another virologist, said, “We’re in a rampant phase with numbers without a lot of ups and downs for 12 weeks or 3 months. He said that a wave in the near future was only possible if a new variant more transmissible than Delta emerged.
Epidemiologist Giridhar Babu said the interpretation of terms such as endemicity is necessarily subjective and clear definitions are needed to track the next phase of Covid.
Dr Gagandeep Kang, a member of the Covid-19 task force and professor at Christian Medical College, Vellore, told TOI that she couldn’t really see a big third wave in the next two months with the existing variants. But, she said, there could be small waves limited to certain geographies. “Delhi, in all probability, has seen four waves. A wave is an increase in cases followed by a decrease over a relatively short period of time in a defined geography. We are unlikely to see a large increase in cases in the third wave as in the second due to the lower number of susceptible people and the lack of new variants, ”she said.
Kang said she wasn’t saying there wouldn’t be a third wave even with the existing variants, but it would be a smaller one in the smaller regions.
She said earlier that there had been a lot of infections and a large number of people had gotten sick because everyone was susceptible. “Now, with fewer susceptible people, there would be an increase in infections without an increase in the number of sick people. This is a decoupling between infection and disease because people are protected against serious illness due to a previous infection or vaccination, ”she said.
Kang said that an endemic is a disease that is constantly present at a high or low frequency, which may differ by geographic area. “Given that the virus has been here for over 18 months, with two-thirds of the population already infected in June / July and the cases persisting, we can reasonably say that we have reached the endemic stage,” she said. declared.
Kang said an increase in the number of cases, even in endemic disease, depended on environmental conditions and changes in behavior. Seasonal fluctuations also affect endemic disease.
Jacob John, another virologist, said, “We’re in a rampant phase with numbers without a lot of ups and downs for 12 weeks or 3 months. He said that a wave in the near future was only possible if a new variant more transmissible than Delta emerged.
Epidemiologist Giridhar Babu said the interpretation of terms such as endemicity is necessarily subjective and clear definitions are needed to track the next phase of Covid.
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