To avoid rising crude prices, it will take more than calls for more oil

This has contributed to the rise in prices of gasoline in the United States. mid-term elections. GasBuddy, a fuel tracking app, estimates that prices will be around $ 2.90 a gallon for the fourth of July holiday, the highest of that day since 2014.

In several tweets, Mr. Trump has accused the Organization of oil exporting countries and on Saturday he said he asked Saudi Arabia, in an appeal to his chief, to increase his oil production.

But even if the cartel allows for Mr. Trump's appeal to increase production, there may not be enough According to badysts, supply breaks should quickly reduce Iran's output , according to badysts.

With the combination of supply disruptions and high demand, "we have a glimpse of the reaction of the oil market Iranian oil is coming to the market," said Ellen Wald, oil market badyst and President of Transversal Consulting

Only last summer, oil producers and consumers envisioned a cheap crude future after three years of mbad oversupply fueled by burgeoning US production. only the major declines in production by OPEC and its allies succeeded in stopping the decline.

Prices take money out of consumers' pockets and lower larger expenses while increasing costs Some economists have an empirical rule for the United States: every penny reduction in gas prices puts more than a billion dollars pa r in the hands of consumers.

Still, the oil industry is such a big part of the US economy now some economists think that high prices will ultimately benefit GDP.

Democrats have sought to capitalize on the issue. "The president who says it does not do it," said the leader of the senatorial minority

Chuck Schumer

(D., N.Y.) on Sunday. "We expect a large increase in Saudi oil production that will lower gas prices at the pump for the consumer to recognize and for the administration to reconsider its decision to reduce consumption standards. essence. "

the White House, the badistants believe that the president's call to Saudi Arabia has been helpful in that Mr. Trump has received badurances of Saudi cooperation.

A value of the appeal is that it has provoked a hostile reaction from Iran. global oil production as a threat to their interests, say the aid of the administration. On Saturday, Iran accused Riyadh of making Washington 's offer.

The United States is not the only one complaining. The recent decision by OPEC and its allies to relax their production limit and allow about 600,000 barrels of crude per day in the market came after large consumers like the US, the United States, and the United States. India and China have asked him to open the faucets.

Trump tweeted: "I ask Saudi Arabia to increase its oil production, perhaps until 2,000,000 barrels ."

Few badysts think this number is possible. With US sanctions, the International Energy Agency estimates that 900,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude could be withdrawn from the market next year, which would halve Tehran's product exports .

The economic and political turmoil in Venezuela hammered its production, contributing to the decline in global supply. The IEA claims that the crisis has taken a million barrels a day off the market over the last two years and that it would likely reduce 550,000 barrels a day next year.

Libya dispute over oil marketing rights hampers export capacity. From Sunday, production has dropped from 800,000 barrels a day to about 300,000 barrels a day, according to a Libyan official.

Even in the United States, where production is at a record 11 million barrels a day, constraints are driving some drillers to idle. In Canada, the continued closure of a major oil facility has limited production of 350,000 barrels per day.

"The overabundance of oil has been eliminated"

Rob Thummel,

who manages the energy badets for Tortoise Advisors based in Leawood, Kan. "Without increased production from OPEC, the global oil market will remain undernourished in the second half of 2018, which would likely drive up oil and gas prices."

To offset the loss of supply and other disturbances Producers could quickly increase production by 1.1 million barrels a day, said the IEA. Half of this amount – 530,000 barrels a day – could be borne by Saudi Arabia, the rest coming from the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq. In addition, Russia could increase production by 300,000 barrels a day over the next few months, according to the agency.

But disturbances in Libya, Iran, Venezuela "mean that the increase in available capacity will probably be greater," said Warren Patterson, ING Bank's Commodity Strategist.

Unlike Previous periods of rising prices, the rise in US oil production, which has more than doubled in a decade, means that a large part of the US economy should benefit But even some producers do not want oil Too high, for fear that it will hurt the global economy and affect demand, among other reasons.

or $ 75 a barrel, some drillers have said the prospect of further increases may not be positive.

"I do not necessarily want higher prices," said David H. Arrington, who operates an independent oil and gas company. ermien thriving in western Texas and New Mexico. "Our number one problem [in West Texas] is people, we need people in offices, in the oil industry, in fracking, in grocery stores and even in convenience stores." If prices go up, it will aggravate this problem. "

Boom areas like the Permian have full employment. Rising prices result in higher service costs and increase the cost of labor.

million. Arrington said he was pleased with Trump's efforts to try to moderate the price hike.

Trump "wants [consumers] to have low prices at the pump," he said. "I agree with him."

– Bradley Olson and Peter Nicholas contributed to this article.

Write to Georgi Kantchev at [email protected] and Benoit Faucon at [email protected]