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(HealthDay) – The risk of recurrence of bad cancer can be extracted with the aid of disease-specific survival data, according to a study published online Oct. 18 Cancer Epidemiology. , Biomarkers and Prevention .
Angela B. Mariotto, Ph.D., of the National Cancer Institute in Bethesda, Maryland, and her colleagues presented a new method for estimating the risk of recurrence. The method was based on a disease-death process badociated with a mixture healing model. The risk of recurrence was deduced from the estimate of survival in the uncured fraction as well as published data on survival after recurrence. The method has been applied to disease-specific survival curves from bad cancer cases in women without prior diagnosis of cancer.
The researchers found a higher risk of recurrence in women who had been diagnosed with bad cancer at a later age or earlier (1992-1999 versus 2000-2013), had a more advanced stage of disease or had hormone receptor negative (HR) tumors. The projected recurrent percentage within five years was 2.5, 9.6 and 34.5% for stage I, II and III positive tumors, and 6.5, 20.2 and 48.5% for stage I, II and III negative tumors in diagnosed women. between the ages of 60 and 74 between 2000 and 2013. Shortly after the diagnosis, HR-positive cases had a lower risk of recurrence, but their risk persisted longer than those of negative cases. The results showed a high degree of robustness for modeling the hypotheses.
"We anticipate that the approach will be applicable to other cancers, particularly those that may be amenable to mixed-process modeling, thereby improving our understanding of the burden of cancer. cancer in the population ". the authors write.
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