[ad_1]
Iran 's position in the oil market seems weaker than ever, as a deadly OPEC meeting and the tightening of US sanctions leave fewer friends and fleeing customers.
Tehran is hit on all sides. Washington is asking buyers to stop any crude purchases, while OPEC and its allies are yielding to US pressures to increase production and fill the void. Iran may have no choice but to convince China to buy more oil, thus risking too much dependence on what is already its biggest customer.
"Iran is in a really horrible position right now," said Sara Vakhshouri, Washington chief, consultant based at D.C. SVB Energy International. "Iran can not really do much to maintain its level of export."
Persian Market
Asia is the largest customer of Iran, but Europe has taken a growing share of exports in 2017.
Last week, at the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Iran had put pressure on its fellow producers to condemn the "illegal" reimposition of President Donald Trump's sanctions and resist US pressure to increase the production of the group. It failed on both counts since Saudi Arabia and Russia interpreted an agreement vaguely worded as a license to pump an additional 1 million barrels a day, offsetting the loss of production by other members.
Losing power [19659002"L'Irann'estpaspertinentpourl'OPEC"adéclaréOlivierJakobdirecteurgénéraldelasociétédeconseilPetromatrixGmbH"Lecommuniquédel'OPEPétaitvagueetlemessageaétésupplantéparlesSaoudiensetlesRussesDoncvouspouvezvoirquiestenchargeici"
Having been largely abandoned by his fellow members of OPEC, Iran has been hit even harder by its biggest enemy. The US State Department announced that it was aimed at zeroing the country's oil exports, rejecting the gradual approach to sanctions adopted by the government of President Barack Obama in 2012.
ALSO READ: The US crude reaches its highest level in 3.5 years Sanctions against Iran
It is not certain that the United States would make a complete stop, since even the American allies are unhappy with the unilateral abandonment of the agreement that has held back the Iranian nuclear program. Iranian Minister of OPEC, Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, said Wednesday in an interview
Stop Shopping
The US Department of Energy eased the hard line on Thursday from the Trump administration Iran could give way to some buyers to gradually reduce their spending.
"These situations will be evaluated on a case-by-case basis," said Deputy Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette. n an interview in Paris. "I would therefore expect that there will be adjustments for the transition periods."
Yet, Brouillette acknowledged that his agency does not oversee the sanctions and that the Ministry of Finance will finally decide the rigor of their application. The oil minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, said in a Bloomberg TV interview last week that buyers, including Total SA and Total's CEO, Patrick Pouyanne, said last month that & ### 39 It was unthinkable for an international company to risk being excluded from the US financial system – the penalty for buying Iranian crude beyond November 4.
This position illustrates the immediate danger to Iran's crude exports, but also the long-term damage that they could inflict on oil and the company began to withdraw from the South Pars 11 natural gas project, the largest investment of an international energy company in the country.
Iranian oil sales are expected to drop by at least 500,000 to 600,000 barrels a day This year, the deficit is potentially much higher given the announcement made Tuesday by the US Department of Foreign Trade. State, according to Vakhshouri. John Browne, former CEO of BP Plc and current president of L1 Energy Holdings Ltd., forecast a drop of 1.5 million barrels a day.
Last Resort
At least some buyers of Iranian supplies plan to comply with Trump's demands. Europe, Iran's second-largest crude oil destination after Asia, is expected to take more barrels from Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, Jakob said. China could buy more oil from Iran, but it will take time for the country to reach deals that will bypbad US restrictions on funding and shipping, said Sri Paravaikkarasu, an oil badyst at FGE in Singapore
]. to China, which is, in a way, the last resort, "said Paravaikkarasu." Indian private actors have made it clear that they will cut Iranian imports while Japanese and Korean refiners will mostly comply with the pressures. of the United States, "she said
deliveries from July, according to an official of the Iranian national oil company, who asked not to be identified during discussions on confidential issues.Zanganeh said that Iran was working on methods to circumvent the sanctions in order to be able to continue exporting, without giving any details.
relying mainly on China – which largely maintained its imports from the United States. Iran during the previous sanctions from 2012 to 2016 the minimum amount of income that Iran requires to pay for essential goods, food and medicines, said Vak hshouri from SVB.But it would also be risky to depend on so much of a single buyer, especially from a country involved in its own negotiations with the United States
"If the United States and China reach a trade agreement, one could expect cuts, "Vakhshouri said.
[ad_2]
Source link
