[ad_1]
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced India's growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point for 2018-2019 due to high oil prices and a restrictive monetary regime.
The effect of headwinds on IMF forecasts for 2019 The IMF predicts that India will grow by 7.3% in 2018-2019 compared to an earlier estimate of 7.4%. The Fund forecast economic growth of 7.8% by 2019-2020, but the projection is now 7.5%, according to the updated Global Economic Outlook (World Economic Outlook – WEO), published Monday.
The economy would experience the fastest growth among major nations in 2018-2019 and in 2019-2020.
The economy of India has experienced its lowest level in four years, or 6.7% in 2017-2018. should reach 7.3% in 2018 (2018-2019) and 7.5% in 2019 (2019-2020). The projection is respectively 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points lower for 2018 and 2019 than for the WEO in April, reflecting the negative effects of higher oil prices on domestic demand and a tightening of the monetary policy faster than expected.
Although the IMF slightly downgraded India's economic growth rate for fiscal year 19, its projections are now in line with what other agencies – the World Bank and the United Nations Asian Development Bank – have predicted. Emerging market economies – notably Argentina, Mexico, Turkey, India and Indonesia – have raised their key rates, reacting to inflation and pressure of interest rates. change (sometimes with capital flow reversals)
Retail inflation rises, growth slump
The RBI raised the key rate by 25 basis points in June 2018, for the first time in four and a half years, citing a RBI had said that there was a 12 percent increase in the price of the Indian crude oil basket, which was "sharper, earlier than expected and seems to be sustainable. "
The RBI will now propose its monetary policy in August, with an inflation rate of 5% on the consumer price index at 5% and above a rate of 5%. wholesale price index inflation of 5.77% in June
The growth rate of 8% will not be possible for at least two years – 2018-19 and 2019-20
The decline in India's growth rates comes as the IMF maintains the rate global growth at 3.9% in 2019 and 2019 respectively.
The IMF reduced economic growth in Argentina and Brazil, in addition to India, among emerging market economies
but much of the disruption caused by demonetization and the commodity tax and services
Growth will increase by 6.7% in 2017-18 as a result of the weakening of the currency exchange initiative and the introduction of the GST, he said.
The third largest economy in the world by 2030 after surpbading France as the sixth largest economy and moving closer to the United Kingdom in 2017.
On Saturday, Secretary of Economic Affairs Subhash Chandra Garg said: "The growth of 8% is very important … achievable … If we keep this … we can look f gold, the Indian economy would be $ 10 trillion, which would be the third largest at world. "
The growth rate of 8% will not be possible before at least two more years – 2018-19 and 2019-20 – According to IMF estimates
However, even as the economy grows By 7 percent a year, its gross domestic product could break $ 10 trillion by 2030 if inflation remains at least 4 percent a year and the rupee does not depreciate too much against the dollar.
[ad_2]
Source link
