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Valdy Kurniawan, an badyst at Phintraco Securities, said the weakening of the rupee would hurt the bank's nonperforming loan ratio. Client companies with a portfolio of foreign currency loans are at risk of default.
If the default potential increases, banks are required to increase their reserves. In other words, it continued to erode net banking income. "At the same time, BI's policy to suppress the weakening of the rupiah gives immediate effect to the banking sector," he said Monday (2/7).
In a recent market, before BI announces the rise in interest rates.
"The banking stock of the past month has been heavily discounted, so there is an indication of a rebound," Valdy said.
Mainly large-cap / large-cap banks, PT Bank Central Asia Tbk), PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (CSTC), PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) and PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI).
One day before the announcement of the increase in the benchmark interest rate, the four The lowest price of last month.
The BNI share fell 3.54% to Rp 6,800 per share from the day before, at Rp 7,050 per share. The weakening followed by the BRI share declined by 3.16% to Rp 2 750 per share versus Rp 2 840 per share
In addition, the shares of BCA fell by 1.87%, from Rp 21,350 per share to Rp 20,950 per share. Bank Mandiri shares fell by 1.51% to Rp 6,500 per share compared to Rp 6,600 per share previously.
However, Valdy said that rising BI rates will also boost banks' lending rates. However, the situation will not happen in the near future.
In addition, BI also issued a new notice regarding the credit-to-value ratio reduction ratio or Loan to Value (LTV) for home loans. This rule sets the mortgage down on zero.
"BI raises the benchmark interest rate, but there is a new buyback policy in order to increase the volume of credit in the real estate sector". she explained.
Cheap Stock
Although it's worth collecting, it does not mean cheap bank stocks. The director of Investa Saran Mandiri, Hans Kwee, explained that cheap or expensive bank stocks are measured from the price / book value (PBV) position of each share.
If bank stocks of PBVs are still less than twice, then the company's stock price may still be considered cheap. In other words, the stock of the bank is quite expensive if it has been more than twice.
"If you can (PBV) bank shares below twice, state banks (SOEs) are still PBVs cheap," Hans Kwee said.
Meanwhile, BCA stocks are expensive because their PBV is above twice. Despite this, he thinks that there is nothing wrong with the market players still buying BCA shares because the prospect is still bright.
"This BCA remains a leader in the market, can go up," he explained.
At the end of last week's trade, BCA's market capitalization was still the highest in the financial sector, at Rp 517.44 billion.
Tracking BIS securities with a market capitalization of 351.68 Rp billion, Bank Mandiri of R11114 billion and BNI of 129.69 billion Rp.
Tempting Property Shares
In addition to bank shares, BI's decision to provide a down payment for real estate loans also had a positive impact on real estate equities.
According to Valdy, the policy will relaunch the property industry under pressure for a few years.
"The price of property sales in the last two years has only increased by one to three percent, the price increase is the benchmark for the state of an industry" , he said.
Meanwhile, stocks are expected to strengthen due to BI's political sentiment, including PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE), PT Pakuwon Jati Tbk (PWON), PT Ciputra Development Tbk (CTRA).
Bumi Serpong Damai and Ciputra Development's observed stock prices reacted positively as early as BI's announcement regarding the easing of the LTV.
Stock prices are up on the previous day. The Bumi Serpong Damai share rose 0.97% to Rp 1,565 per share and Ciputra Development jumped 2% to Rp 1,020 per share.
Meanwhile, Pakuwon Jati shares stagnate at Rp530 per share. "Bumi Serpong Damai is also included in the LQ-45 index," said. (beer)
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