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Mohammad Faisal, executive director of the Center for Reform of the Economy (Core) Indonesia, said that the food component of the Lebaran 2018 food component is weak. This component is what keeps the inflation rate at a controlled level.
"Food inflation is generally the most important component of Eid's inflationary factors, other inflationary components tend to increase in the times of the year. Eid, especially transport, food and clothing ". /2018).
Attention, inflation after Lebaran in 2017, non-food inflation contributes up to 0.55%, to the total inflation of June 2017 of 0 69%. In other words, food does not become a factor that encourages high levels of inflation after Lebaran.
Faishal estimated that food inflation should not exceed 0.2%. Even if food inflation in June is only 0%, non-food inflation will contribute more than 0.3%.
"So, I think that total inflation stays above 0.3%, so my estimate [inflasi] is between 0.3 and 0.4% in June," he said.
As Eko Listiyanyo, deputy director of the Institute for Development and Economics of Indonesia (Indiaf), the low availability of goods and purchasing power has triggered a controlled inflation rate
.
According to him, the food import during the fasting season and Lebaran 2018 is high enough for the availability of goods to be maintained.
Meanwhile, the issue of purchasing power remains a major problem. The granting of THR, the 13th salary, and social spending will have an impact, but there is still pressure on people's buying power.
Other uncontrollable triggers are airplane tickets, can and shipping. According to Eko, although the increase in the government fixed price should not be higher than 30%, you practice when mudik ticket prices soar.
According to Eko, the Bank of Indonesia (BI) 's inflation target is still achievable, although some commodities continue to rise. He also agrees with the annual (year-over-year) inflation target of 2.98% or projected inflation of 0.45% in June 2018.
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