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JAKARTA – The government is proposing economic growth in the range of 5.2% to 5.6% in 2019. This figure is down 0.2% from the previous year. Macroeconomic Framework and Principles of Fiscal Policy (KEM-PPKF) proposed some time ago to DPR-RI.
Suahasil Nazara, head of the finance bureau of the Bureau of Tax Policy (BKF), said the drop in the target was a realistic measure. In particular for the purpose of economic growth of Indonesia next year can achieve the goal that has been determined.
"So we should better 5.2% to 5.6% to target our growth next year is more realistic," he told the House of Representatives, Jakarta, Monday (07/02 / 2018).
According to Suahasil, there are several things that make the government finally reduce the economic growth of 2019 from the KEM PPKF proposal. The first reason is the changing global economic factor.
"Seen gestures it is 5.2% to 5.6% it's below KEM-PpKF that it was formed from last February, looking at the last consideration when we talk about KEM-PPKF I think the global world volatility is still high, "he said.
This follows the policy of the United States Government and the United States Bank (US) which plans to raise interest rates up to four times this year. Not to mention the policy of imposition of import duties on goods imported from China that cause a trade war.
"With the improvement of the US economy, the Fed began raising its interest rates so that the US economy would not be overheated . , the 10-year US bond interest rate began to rise slowly. "
"The Fed's rate will increase further if next year there will likely be a transmission to the Indonesian economy," he added.
As is known, the government has submitted the macroeconomic framework and fiscal policy principles (KEM-PPKF) of the fiscal year. 2019 in the House of Representatives. The base badumptions proposed by the government in 2019 are better than this year.
For economic growth, the government estimates it to be 5.4% to 5.8%. While for inflation, it is estimated to 2.5 to 4.5%.
Furthermore, the 3-month SPN interest rate is estimated at 4.6% to 5.2%. Regarding the rupiah exchange rate is estimated in the range of Rp13,700 to Rp 14,000 per USD
Regarding the price of crude oil, the government's goal is to be between $ 60 and $ 70 per barrel. While the oil lift is at the rate of 722-805 thousand barrels a day, and the gas of about 1.21 to 1.30 million barrels of oil equivalent.
(dni)
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