World oil prices fall amid rising production of OPEC



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Jakarta, CNN Indonesia – The price of world oil dropped on Monday (2/7) US time (US). The weakening is due to the rise in oil production in Saudi Arabia and Russia after the economic turmoil in Asia after the warming of the trade dispute with the United States

Reuters Tuesday (3/7) US $ 1.93 to US $ 77.3 per barrel. During the trading session, Brent prices fell 2.4% due to various news over the weekend that raised concerns in the market. In fact, last week, Brent jumped more than 5%.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate futures prices fell from US $ 0.21 to US $ 73.94 per barrel.

The premium between US crude oil prices at the beginning of the month and the second month widened by 2.38 Singapore dollars, the widest since August 20, 2014. The move indicates that market expectations a shortage of supply will occur more severely in the short term.

Based on Genscape data, market participants reported that US crude oil inventories in the Cushing, Oklahoma, shipping hubs were declining. Crude oil inventories decreased by 3.2 million barrels during the week ended June 22, but increased slightly over the next four days until June 26, 2018.

The decline in In Cushing was in part due to disturbances in Canada. Spokesperson for Canadian oil company Suncor Energy Inc. confirmed that production at the Syncrude oil facility near Fort McMurray, Alberta is likely to be disrupted at least during the month of July.

"There seems to be considerable uncertainty as to the amount of additional oil supply on the market," said Vice President of Market Research, Tradition Energy Gene McGillian in Stamford, Connecticut.

McGillian indicates how much remaining capacity of Saudi Arabia is able to surpbad supply shortages in world markets.

US President Donald Trump sent Saturday through his Twitter account that King of Saudi Arabia Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud agreed to pump more oil, probably up to two millions of barrels. However, the White House declined to comment further.

A Reuters study showed that Saudi Arabia's production rose 700,000 per barrel from May 2018, close to a record in November 2016, when production reached 10, 72 million barrels a day (bpd).

Meanwhile, according to a Reuters survey, oil production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased by 320,000 bpd in June 2018.

Later, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture Energy said Russian crude oil production reached 11.06 million bpd in June, compared to 10.97 million bpd in May.

In the United States, crude oil production reached 30.9 percent in the last two years at 10.9 million bpd. In other words, the world's three largest crude oil producers each produce about 11 million bpd or about one-third of world oil demand.

On the other hand, oil demand is disrupted by trade disputes between the United States and some of the world's largest economies, including China, the European Union, India and Canada.

Exports from China, Japan and South Korea in June 2018 would slow down due to a fierce trade dispute with the United States.

In his report, JP Morgan estimates that the mid-level global trade conflict should weigh on global economic growth by at least 0.5%. The forecast has not yet taken into account the tightening of financial market conditions and the feeling of surprise.

Despite the easing of production from Saudi Arabia and Russia, the oil market remains tense due to supply disruptions from Canada, Venezuela and Libya . The imposition of US sanctions against Iran has also helped to reinforce the tightening of the market.

In an interview Sunday (2/7), Trump threatened to impose sanctions on EU companies that have commercial activities with Iran.

"The Trump government's plan to impose sanctions on Iran is now clearer and they are trying to push exports of Iranian crude oil, condensate and petroleum products to zero," he said. the consulting firm FGE



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