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The next flu season is set to be much worse than the last cycle, according to health experts, who fear an influx of cases could put more strain on hospitals already overwhelmed by the Delta wave.
The season could also strike earlier and more severely than usual, doctors and researchers said, as many people have not been able to boost their natural immune defenses while working from home and avoiding strangers. .
“The worst case scenario is a true twin” of Covid-19 and influenza cases, said William Schaffner, professor of preventive medicine at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine.
An increase in influenza cases could put further strain on hospitals already overwhelmed by COVID-19. (iStock)
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Several factors are behind expectations of a potentially difficult flu season, said Dr Schaffner and other health experts, although it is notoriously difficult to predict how hard the virus will strike.
Many children will be back to school where they can contract and spread infections, health experts have said. Many adults don’t work in their offices where they usually get the flu shot, or they don’t want another vaccine after receiving their doses of Covid-19. And many people will no longer be protected by masking and other Covid-19 restrictions that have been relaxed.
To complicate matters, researchers and industry officials said, the flu vaccine might be less accurate than usual because so little virus was circulating last year, giving researchers less information to choose strains. correct for the target season vaccine. After the World Health Organization selects the annual flu strains, a Food and Drug Administration advisory group meets to select those used in the US vaccine.
“Informed predictions had much less data to rely on in the strain selection committee,” said Richard Zimmerman, a professor at the University of Pittsburgh and former chairman of a US government influenza advisory group.
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Dr Zimmerman said his model for the next influenza season predicts 102,000 more hospitalizations than last season if influenza vaccines are not more effective and their use is the same as last season.
The flu, or flu, is a contagious respiratory illness that typically strikes the United States from October through May, with peaks from December through February. In the United States, nine million to 45 million people are infected each year, resulting in 140,000 to 810,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 to 61,000 deaths, most in adults 65 and older, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
According to the CDC, adults 65 years of age and older or with chronic health conditions like asthma, heart disease and diabetes, pregnant women, and members of ethnic minority groups are at higher risk of developing severe influenza complications.
Vaccines are the best defense against the flu, according to health officials. The CDC recommends that people six months and older get a flu shot, ideally before the end of October.
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Despite fears of a bad flu season last year, cases fell to an all-time high, the CDC said, as the virus had little opportunity to spread, with schools and businesses closed and people wearing masks and distancing themselves.
Flu cases were at their lowest during the 2020-2021 influenza season, with public health laboratories and clinics reporting just a few thousand influenza cases, up from around 38 million cases during the season 2019-2020, according to the CDC.
The recent resurgence of respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, heralds a more intense influenza season than last year in addition to the relaxation of precautionary measures and the return of many students to class.
An FDA advisory committee in March selected four strains of influenza to target with this season’s injections. Health experts have expressed confidence in the selections, but said it was too early to know because flu season is not yet underway.
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At Ochsner Health, Louisiana’s largest hospital network, officials said they fear flu season is putting more strain on its ability to provide patient care.
The hospital system is already delaying elective surgeries to deal with staff shortages as coronavirus patients flood hospitals. If the system faces an increase in the number of influenza cases, it may be forced to reduce clinic visits and preventative care procedures such as mammograms.
With Covid-19 “continuing to increase, we are concerned,” said Sandra Kemmerly, medical director of the health system, specializing in infectious diseases.
Health officials have expressed hope that a relatively high flu vaccination rate will keep the number of cases manageable this season, but fear people will be so tired from Covid-19 vaccinations that they will skip the vaccine. against the flu. The data indicates that people are behind on routine immunizations. In February 2021, 55% of all adults received the flu shot, up from about 48% at the end of the previous season, according to the CDC.
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Drug makers, including GlaxoSmithKline PLC, AstraZeneca PLC and Sanofi SA, are providing between 188 million and 200 million flu shots in the United States this year, according to the CDC. Supplies would be comparable to last year’s shipment, which was a record high.
Several efforts are underway to encourage the use of clichés.
The CDC has said flu shots and Covid-19 vaccines can be given together, after advising last year, during the early days of vaccine deployment, that doses should be taken separately.
The agency is planning a digital campaign to encourage influenza vaccination, especially for people with underlying health conditions and people belonging to racial and ethnic minority groups, and will launch an advertising campaign in mid- October, said a spokesperson.
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The CDC is also providing more than $ 150 million in funding to support national, state and local campaigns aimed at increasing confidence in Covid-19 and influenza vaccines among adults from racial and ethnic minority groups, the said. spokesperson.
GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi said they were working on influenza vaccination public awareness campaigns to try to increase vaccination rates. AstraZeneca said it launched its nasal spray influenza vaccine in late August for people aged 2 to 49, a needle-free option that some patients prefer, and which could expand access.
Sanofi has developed an online tool for doctors and nurses to provide information to patients to bring them back to doctor’s offices after scores of people stayed at home last year and postponed treatments and vaccinations core, said Elaine O’Hara, head of Sanofi’s vaccine business in North America.
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“The flu is a very delicate little devil, he’s very elusive,” Ms. O’Hara said. “The last thing we want are outbreaks related to Covid or the flu, because you don’t want both to happen at the same time. “
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Len Friedland, vice president and director of scientific affairs and public health at GlaxoSmithKline, expressed hope that the Covid-19 vaccination campaign will persuade many people to appreciate the benefits of vaccines.
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