Taiwan resists threats from China – Pierre Haski

In a world where the decline of democracy is becoming the norm, it is almost natural to forget the places where it enjoys good health. This is the case of Taiwan, an example of a country which, although perceived as an outcast from China, is in fact one where freedoms are most respected.

According to Reporter Without Borders, among Asian countries, Taiwan is at the top of the rankings of press freedom, not a single political prisoner, last year experienced a new democratic alternation, respects the freedom of badociation and worship, and has one of the most vibrant civil societies in the world.

Still, Taiwan "does not exist". China is working to gradually cancel its presence. President Xi Jinping buys, one after the other, states that still have diplomatic relations with Taipei, like Burkina Faso, the last one to have broken relations with the government. island to return to the orbit of Beijing and enjoy the economic benefits of the new Silk Road. There are fewer than twenty countries that still have relations with Taipei, most of the small Pacific states – or the Vatican, which in turn is engaged with Beijing in negotiations until then unsuccessful.

On the Frontline
At this growing diplomatic isolation – which deprives Taiwan of access to international organizations and to the UN – a new element is added: Beijing is pressuring airlines and companies for them to stop presenting Taiwan as a country apart, threatening to suffer retaliation. Air France-Klm is bent on this blackmail: its new flight is no longer directed to "Taipei, Taiwan" but simply to Taipei.

"Taiwan is in the front line," said Tsai Ing-wen, a member of the Democratic Party, but shuns any mention of a change of status of the island to avoid creating a casus belli with Beijing. This "front line" should not be understood in the military sense, even if the fear of conflict is often evoked by the media.

Taiwan is one of the pawns of the Asian chessboard, and on this chessboard today we decide a part of the future of the world. The Taiwanese – starting with its ever-agitated rulers because of Beijing's hostility – know what games are being played around them, and often without them intervening.

In particular, they can not decipher the behavior of Donald Trump towards China. The US President's policy is appreciated in Taipei because it has strengthened ties between the United States and the island (the US representation in Taipei has just inaugurated the new headquarters in a much larger building greater than the previous one), and chose a policy of "containment" – to use a term used during the Cold War – of Chinese power. But, says a European diplomat in Taipei, the country knows that it is being exploited by Trump, who could soon neglect or even betray him, if he finds it suddenly advantageous to have better relations with his "Friend" Xi Jinping.

Diplomacy and Technology
Taiwanese still have two important cards to play: democracy and good technology in the semiconductor industry. This is a sign of our time, that of not valuing the existence of a democracy in a region where there are very few. Between an authoritarian China, which has further exacerbated the crackdown with Xi Jinping, and a free and open Taiwan, it should be simple to stand … But the economic attractiveness weighs much more in favor of 1.4 billion Chinese than 23 million Taiwanese, even if they have a strong purchasing power.

Taiwan became a parliamentary democracy thirty years ago after successfully getting rid of its military dictatorship. Today, he uses his weaving ties with civil societies in other Asian countries, often ruled by authoritarian governments, or in the midst of delicate transitions.

Two decades ago, Taiwan was the economic giant and China lagged behind. Today's relations have been reversed

The Taiwanese Foundation for Democracy, financed by public funding for fifteen years, is the executive branch of this strategy: at the end of June, it organized a regional summit in Taipei in which she participated, among others, a Filipino journalist who had to deal with Rodrigo Duterte's regime, and a Malaysian activist who recounted how in Kuala Lumpur more than sixty years of authoritarianism were wiped out by May elections. There was also a former independent Chinese trade unionist in exile. The leaders of the Progressive Democratic Party, in power in Taiwan, see some Asian countries as possible allies to oppose Chinese influence, even if the economic weight of Beijing remains the dominant factor in these relations. strength.

Taipei also wants to preserve its technological edge, which has recently proven to be of considerable weight. The case Zte – the Chinese telecommunications giant at the center of a zany affair with the US administration, and that might not succeed when Washington deprived of electronic components because & # 39; 39, she violated the sanctions against Iran – revealed the vulnerability of China. Despite its strong growth, Beijing has not yet reached the technological level that would allow it to abandon the microprocessors of which Taiwan is one of the largest producers with the United States and South Korea.

In Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing company (Tsmc), the world's largest industry, it is estimated that China will need more than a decade to catch up even if President Xi Jinping put the issue at the top of the agenda. Tsmc has maintained its headquarters in Taiwan, unlike many other industries in the island that have invested heavily in mainland China, such as Foxconn, which manufactures Apple or Samsung phones in China.

The Zte case also sparked – a rare fact – a public debate in China, as the South China Morning Post wrote. The Hong Kong newspaper, owned by Chinese billionaire Jack Ma, quotes Liu Yadong, editor-in-chief of the pro-government Keji Ribao newspaper (science and technology journal), as saying that China "deludes itself" if it thinks of soon to be able to outstrip the United States in science and technology.

"The great scientific and technological divide between China and Western countries should be a recognized fact and not a problem, but it becomes a problem when people who overly extol Chinese achievements lie to leaders, people and them. the Chinese journalist, in a rare public criticism of official propaganda.

Two decades ago, Taiwan was the economic giant and China was lagging behind. Today, relations have been reversed and the Chinese economic rise suggests that the island could one day fall into the arms of Beijing as a ripe fruit.

Taipei tries, in an essentially hostile environment, to find its place in the regional game. In fact, he has also established close ties with Japan, in case the Americans, with or without Trump, decide one day to withdraw from the regions of Asia and the Pacific.

Anything May Happen
Taiwan follows with great attention the great maneuvers concerning North Korea, which could influence regional security, beginning with the United States' commitment.

In fact, at this time when the dominant power (the United States) and the emerging power (China) are observed and tested – on the commercial and technological terrain, in the South China Sea and in the Strait of Formosa – anything can happen, be it a fatal combination that will lead to a war, or a negotiation that will determine a new modus vivendi for the next few years.

We must therefore prepare ourselves for all possibilities for Taiwan. In this delicate context, the democratic image of the island is a decisive instrument of soft power the only one on which Beijing can certainly not count.