BCE, unchanged rates until the summer of 2019

On the sixth anniversary of his famous "all you need" (at all costs), Mario Draghi took advantage of the latest ECB advice before the summer holidays to celebrate a euro that "rests" on a much more solid foundation than then "and an" arsenal "that seemed unthinkable on July 26, 2012.

The president of the Eurotower, expected by the end of next year, also expressed a cautious relief for the possible truce between the EU and the US on tariffs, while the autopilot on monetary policy remains inserted. The lines announced in June are essentially confirmed: rates unchanged for at least another year and, in any case, for all the time necessary to bring underlying inflation (excluding energy) to the target. set at 2%. Yesterday was also the first meeting after the Riga meeting in which the conquest was decided (the end of the expansionary monetary policy).

"The rate puzzle remains," says Anna Maria Grimaldi, senior economist at the Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department, according to which "the ECB can afford to travel on an autopilot." We remain convinced that the board of directors The administration will want to remove negative rates by the end of next year or early 2020. We expect at least one rate hike in September or October 2019 and probably another in December. " President of the Central Bank then reiterated that in October, he would reduce purchases of state and corporate bonds by 30 to 15 billion euros a month and stop them. finally in December. The ECB will, however, continue to reinvest in maturing securities for an extended period and, in any case, as needed, according to the Eurotower's country-by-share rule. Draghi, in a cryptic way, has indeed said that the board has not yet scheduled a meeting to discuss changes to the reinvestment policy.

As for the future, the President of the ECB expects "strong and widespread growth in the second half of the year", although weaker than the data recorded in 2017 " because of a more normal export performance ". In this scenario, "underlying inflation is expected to increase towards the end of the year, and then continue to strengthen gradually in the medium term, supported by our monetary policy measures and the continuation of the current monetary policy. economic expansion ". The threat of escalating protectionism from the United States remains one of the major risk factors for European growth and, in this regard, Draghi stressed that it is too early for evaluate the results of yesterday's summit between Donald Trump and the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Junker. Responding to accusations launched a week ago by the US president, Draghi reiterated that "the exchange rate is not a political goal." For decades at the international level, we agreed to refrain from proceeding with competitive devaluations. "