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The weakness of the euro-dollar does not stop: after crossing the threshold of 1.13 yesterday, it continues to move just below this threshold. In the last few minutes, the cross was photographed at 1.1272, down about 0.2% from yesterday's close, unmoved by macroeconomic data released this afternoon in America.
US macroeconomic data do not move the cross, but those of the EU
Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm "type =" text "content =" Third quarter, GDP reading is slightly lower than Forecasts had no impact on the dollar as the collapse in new home sales in October had no impact on investor positions.
Even the decline recorded yesterday by the confidence indicators in Italy and France did not help the single currency. & Nbsp; as explained by badysts Unicredit (EUREX: DE000A163206.EX – new), the moderate decline in the US consumer confidence gap recorded yesterday also served as a pretext to bring down the euro-dollar exchange rate slightly below 1.13. "data-reactid =" 24 "> GDP in the third quarter slightly below expectations did not have an impact on the dollar as the collapse in new home sales in October had no impact on investors.
Even the decline recorded yesterday by the confidence indicators in Italy and France did not help, as the badysts at Unicredit (EUREX: DE000A163206.EX – news) explain, the moderate decline in the US consumer confidence gap observed yesterday also as an excuse to bring the euro-dollar exchange rate down slightly to 1.13.
Even before yesterday, the single currency was also weakened by indications provided by the IFO index, prevalent two days ago in Germany, with a wider decline in forecasts that certainly did not rebadure investors about a possible slowdown in the German economy. .
Euro penalized by the question of rights. Improbabil surprises Powell
The focus is now on the G20 meeting next weekend, which is heated by the debate over US tariffs, as Unicredit badysts have pointed out, which means that the cross remains weak and apparently unable to progress. to the top.
Rumors have been reported by the German press that President Trump may impose tariffs on car imports after the G20, with the exception of Canada and Mexico.
Sufficient to continue to give strength to the dollar, with the cross with the lows of the year marked October 12 near the area 1.122, he also managed to climb the slope, without exceeding the bar of 1,145 . the sales.
The recovery in the second decade of November was mainly driven by a weakening dollar, as market fears related to a possible halt by the Fed in the direction of rising interest rates.
It will be important to follow today the speech of the President of the US Central Bank, Jerome Powell, but according to Unicredit badysts, it is unlikely that the president will confirm the rumors about a possible interruption of increases in the cost of money and this, according to experts. provide additional support to the dollar.
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The Rbc view
Note that the change just at the time of writing is of some importance, since, according to Rbc badysts, a support break at 1.1276 could push it to the lows of the year in the 1.122 / 1.1216 area. . Experts believe that the little progress in the clashes between Rome and Brussels on the Italian maneuver, but also rumors about Trump's intentions to impose taxes on the import of cars before the end of the year. 39, year weigh on the euro.
<p clbad = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Citigroup (NYSE: C – new): the euro could weaken again "data-reactid =" 36 "> Citigroup (NYSE: C – new): the euro could weaken again
<p clbad = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Citigroup (Swiss: C-USD.SW – new) is convinced that, despite unexpected information such as that relating to the new US tariffs, the single currency can still be weakened by the macroeconomic data of the euro area, thus preventing any attempt at recovery despite the temporary easing of tensions on Italy. "data-reactid =" 37 "> Citigroup (Switzerland: C-USD.SW – news) is convinced that, despite unexpected information such as that concerning new US tariffs, the single currency can still be weakened by macroeconomic data" eurozone, thus preventing any attempt at recovery despite the temporary easing of tensions over Italy.
<p clbad = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "No different view of Rabobank colleagues, second than the sluggish economy of the euro zone and fears of the Italian finance law make investors reluctant to anticipate a rebound in the euro.
The result is a persistent weakness in the Euro-dollar that runs a short distance from Zone 1.12, indicated by Rabobank as a target for next spring. "Data-reactid =" 38 "> colleagues of Rabobank, according to which the slowdown of the economy of the euro zone and the fears of the Italian finance law make investors reluctant to anticipate a rebound of the euro.
The result is a persistent weakness in the Euro-dollar that runs a short distance from Zone 1.12, indicated by Rabobank as a target for next spring.
Mufg more optimistic about the future of the single currency
On the other hand, badysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group seem more confident about the future of the euro, which sees with optimism the evolution of the confrontation between the Italian government and the European Commission. Their idea is that a significant change in the relationship between Rome and Brussels on the issue of maneuver would be essential to trigger sustainable growth of the euro.
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