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Families and businesses slip into the circle of discouraged people. Six months of government thwarted by the dialectical struggles with Brussels, internal conflicts to the majority, rising margins and market share, have resulted in changing the morale of Italians deteriorating. That of the productive world is already tending toward the dark; that of consumers becomes gray. Lega and the M5 should therefore devote a few minutes to the study of another barometer of the electorate: the ISTAT on trust. The November data are not particularly rebaduring: the consumption index went from 116.5 to 114.8 and that of the companies decreased for the fifth consecutive month, from 102.5 to 101.1. In addition to the numbers, they hit some disturbing elements. The first: the decline in private confidence has been caused "primarily by the deterioration of judgments and expectations regarding the economic situation of Italy," says the Institute of Statistics. How to say: things are not going to improve in the future. The second: with the sole exception of trade, pessimism has increased in all sectors of production, from manufacturing to construction and services.
These indications are not without consequences. A loss of confidence, as the British call it, often results in less ability – and desire – for action. Which means less investment for businesses, fewer growth projects and fewer hires or no hires; for families, this is reflected in the famous seatbelt strategy: reduced expenses and more savings (when possible), so as not to be defenseless if the situation worsens. . It is the attitude of those who take refuge in the trenches to limit the damage, even if with this defensive attitude, the risk is to depress the economy.
The recent market reversals were determined by a gradual loss of confidence in Italy, which resulted in a decline of 14.50% in Piazza Affari over the course of the year. last six months, down 14.50% over the last six months. an overheating of the gap of just over 200 points in June to 294 yesterday and rising yields of government bonds. Until the almost mbadive desertion, last week, on the occasion of the Btp Italia auction.
Admittedly, the current levels of confidence are not even very similar to those observed in April 2013, the last month of the Monti government, when the activity indicator was set at 77.4, a level close to 74.1 on April 2009, with Italy's ended in the towers of the great crisis. After the austerity cure, the loss of nearly four GDP, the public debt has risen to 127% and the unemployment higher by 1.5 point to the EU average, entrepreneurs have put two years – the country coming out of recession – before reporting the confidence level above the quota 100 waterline.
The story thus teaches how easy it is to lose optimism and how difficult it is to recover it. On Monday at the latest, ECB President Mario Draghi has noted the lack of confidence, along with financial and trade tensions, among the elements capable of creating contagion in the most vulnerable countries. As always, trust remains a serious issue. Handle with caution.
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