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In the first nine months of the year, the improvement in the household's financial situation, combined with still favorable market conditions – both in terms of housing prices and interest on mortgages – contributed to the gradual recovery of real estate sales. The uncertain scenario that has been consolidated in recent weeks may, however, lead individuals and families to take a wait-and-see approach and postpone decisions on a major investment such as the one on the house. Among the factors that have played a significant role over the last few months are the mortgage spreads, which have remained stable from historical lows, even in the third quarter. For a € 140,000 loan with a 20-year term of € 220,000, the quarterly average of the best spreads is confirmed for variable rate loans of 0.7% and for borrowings. fixed rate mortgages at values close to zero. This particularly attractive spread situation made it possible to maintain the interest of individuals and families in the face of new subrogation transactions.
Mortgages, rates and spreads: these are the signs that come from the banks
In fact, the weight of requests to this effect explains about 33% of the total number of requests collected on the Internet channel (channel which is a litmus test for this segment), which represents a slight increase compared to an incidence of 31% recorded. in the second quarter of 2018, but still well below the peaks of previous years. On the other hand, the new disbursements are becoming apparent as the acceleration dynamics of the real estate sector have gradually led to the resumption of disbursements for home purchase purposes and, consequently, the growth of the mortgage market as a whole. In the online channel, the weight of disbursements for purchase has steadily increased for more than 18 months, reaching 58% of total disbursements in the third quarter of 2018, compared with the previous year. 43% in the third quarter of 2017.
Moreover, even data from the Bank of Italy confirm the new positive trend of mortgage market growth and recorded in the second quarter of 2018 an increase of new loans disbursed equal to + 8.5%. This increase is particularly significant as it reverses the trend of contraction recorded in the previous four quarters. The figures from the Revenue Agency also confirm the fact that the real estate sector is in a phase of gradual acceleration, with an increase in the number of residential sales of + 5.6%. in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the third quarter of 2017, attesting to the consolidation of the real estate market expansion, in place for more than four consecutive years, also favored by still attractive market values. In this regard, a particularly interesting indication also comes from the evolution of prices per square meter of properties provided as collateral for the loan, which increased by + 0.8% in the third quarter of 2018. This positive trend is the first recorded since 2011. The badysis of the price / m² of goods covered by the guarantee for the 2011/2017 period reveals in reality an average contraction in real estate prices equal to -22.2%.
The new price results in particular from the recovery of the price / m² over the quarter, with a rise of their prices of + 3.8% compared to the third quarter of 2017, while the price / m² of used buildings shows a positive dynamic but less marked. , marking an encouraging rate of + 0.8%. According to the evolution of prices / square meters for the third quarter of 2018 geographically, the largest increase was recorded in the Center, with an increase of 1.9% over the third quarter of 2017, and in the Northwest with an increase of 0.3%. in the North-East and South macro-zones and the islands, the reductions were respectively -1.3% and -1.0%.
Mortgages and real estate prices have collapsed, even 400,000 euros saved to buy with the crisis
This is the most significant proof of the new edition of the Bussola Mutui quarterly newsletter, signed by CRIF and MutuiSupermarket.it, which offers an up-to-date and comprehensive overview of current trends in the Italian residential and real estate mortgage market.
"This autumn brings a series of important innovations to the market and shows the beginning of new trends that could characterize the dynamic evolution of the coming quarters.First, the acceleration of the recovery of the real estate market: + 5, 6% of residential acquisitions in the second quarter confirm the recovery of the sector and, after 12 months of freeze, push new borrowings in positive territory, with an + 8.6% increase in new flows in the second quarter – comments Stefano Rossini, Director and founder of MutuiSupermarket.it – The acceleration of the real estate sector accompanies a recovery in prices per square meter of real estate, equal to + 0.8% in the third quarter of 2018. After about 7 ½ years of contractions – which resulted in an average reduction in real estate prices of about -22% over the period – this first increase could constitute a tipping point market, likely to trigger new virtuous circles. That is why we hope that the uncertainty that characterizes this phase does not stop the projects of individuals and families who, after years of waiting, return to the theme of buying a house to take advantage of prices. very attractive real estate, but are already experiencing an increase. Over the past two quarters, mortgage prices have remained stable at historically low levels and have been very supportive of new purchases. However, even in this case, there is fear of a further increase in applied rates. In this regard, we are already seeing the first signs of an increase in fixed rate mortgages, mainly due to a delay in revising finished supply rates in the face of increases in IRS indices. The liquidity situation of the banking system remains positive for the moment, but the continuation or intensification of tensions on national and international financial markets and the evolution of the current political dialogue at European level are correlated elements. that might have a tendency to trigger significant growth dynamics on mortgages ".
The truth about mortgages in Italy, here is what happens with the boom of the spread
"The Italian residential market – explains Stefano Magnolfi, executive director of CRIF Real Estate Services – is trying to get on the road to recovery not only in terms of the number of transactions made but also in reference to prices, although the increases in the latter is synonymous with better quality than used houses, a quality that is now almost indispensable to the needs of an increasingly selective demand, particularly in terms of energy efficiency. credit are progressively prepared to provide more favorable terms – such as lower interest rates or a higher ratio between the loan amount and the value of the good (LTV) – to those who buy low-energy goods that perform efficiency improvements on the existing. "Green Mortgages" are actually in the process of e become a reality throughout Europe, also thanks to more favorable EU legislation on the provisions for energy efficient real estate guarantees. We hope that the good, even timid, signals that we see on the entire real estate market are not called into question by the persistent climate of uncertainty hanging over the Italian system, which could have significant effects also on real estate financing. "
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