[ad_1]
After a year marked by stability, the European car market Efta (including the 28 EU countries and the three EFTA countries) started in 2019 with the activated handbrake. In fact, according to data released this morning by the Association of European Automobile Manufacturers, Acea Last month, car registrations fell 4.6% to 1.266 million. Despite a weak start to the game, it is the second best month of January since 2009.
With respect to the geographical breakdown, the demand for new cars declined in most of the region, including the five largest markets. Italy and Spain recorded the most significant declines in terms of registrations, respectively -7.5% and -8%. Decreases in the United Kingdom (-1.6%), Germany (-1.4%) and France (-1.1%).
The negative variation in terms of volume was nearly 60,000 cars, including nearly 30,000 in the five largest markets, which accounted for 68.5% of the EU's Efta market, with 840,204 cars (-3.4%), noted Paolo Scudieri, president of Anfia. The diesel market fell sharply, except in Germany where it rose 2.1%. In total, sales of diesel vehicles in major markets decreased by 19%, from 353,000 registrations in January 2018 to 286,000 in January 2019.
"The European market is strongly influenced by domestic demand and the slowdown in the economy could have a significant impact on car sales," Scudieri warned, adding that the ambitious targets for reducing CO2 emissions would have negative consequences for employment across the country. the automotive value chain, in the absence of adequate interventions and concrete development plans, coordinated with the institutions, to support and support the sector in this transition phase towards sustainable mobility and transformation structural market.
"In short," said Gian Primo Quagliano, president of the Centro Studi Promotor, "after five years of uninterrupted growth and after reaching in 2018 a sales volume of 15,624,486 cars with a negative deviation from the 2007 reduced maximum at 2.37%, the EU + Efta market is reversing the trend, mainly due to the deterioration of the economic situation, the demonization of diesel and the disorientation of the public in view of the still unclear perspectives of the car supply " .
All this augurs badly for 2019, especially as the automotive sector is a crucial sector of the European economy since it employs more than 13 million people and generates a representative business figure. 6.8% of European GDP. "The decline in Europe in this first month of the year, in line with the deteriorating trend of the last part of 2018, does not bode well for a sustained recovery in sales. in 2019, "said Michele Crisci, President Unrae, the Association of Foreign Automobile Manufacturers.
As the data show, "Italy is one of the countries to register a significant slowdown, especially given the uncertainty of these first two months marked by the coming into effect of the bonus-malus on March 1st, "said Crisci. that the car market is characterized by a lot of confusion generated by the buyers of new cars "and we are concerned that the situation can not be improved due to the aggravation of an inappropriate and penalizing ecotax that will be paid to the Purchase of certain models ".
And to underperform the European automotive market in January, FCA with a drop of -14.9% to 72,584 vehicles in January and a market share down from 5.6% to 6.9% in August 2018. In more detail, the Fiat brand it decreased by 19.6%, with a market share of 3.9% after 4.7% in January 2018; Jeep recorded a share of -1.8% with a stable share of 1% and Alfa Romeo, a share of -34.8%, with a share down from 0.6% to 0.4%.
So the stock FCA is on the stock market it is currently recording one of the worst performances with a fall of 1.72% to 12.698 euros. "FCA's performance in January in Europe, it was rather mediocre, mainly because of the negative trend of high-end brands Jeep and Alfa ", commented this morning the badysts of Mediobanca Securities, recalling that the accounts for the fourth quarter of 2018 and the group's forecast for 2019 were below consensus estimates, with the company now expecting lower margins than expected.
"The European market is expected to remain fairly weak in FY 2019. The company has forecast a stable trend in the region, while our forecasts indicate a 5% drop in volumes, so we maintain a neutral rating on the market." FCA action. with a target price of 15 euros, "they explained to Mediobanca . Banca Akros also reiterated its neutral score with a target price of 16 euros. Instead for Fidentiis the weak performance of FCA is in line with his expectations for which the note remains buy on Fca also because the stock trades at a 2019 multiple price / earnings of 4.7 times against the industry 6.3 times and 6.6 times US competitors and an EV / ebit of 3.2 times against 5.2 times in the sector and 6.6 times among US competitors.
Weigh on Fca it is also the decommissioning of Banca Imi from add to hold. The target price falls from 15.8 to 14.3 euros. If January data from Fca in the EU, the opinion of the investment bank has strengthened the view that the recovery of the fundamentals of the group in EMEA could take longer than expected, after recording a record profit in 2018 ", 2019 seems much more difficult for the group, confirmed by an orientation on the current year significantly lower than expected," said badysts Banca Imi, according to which the actions needed to restore the profitability in the EMEA, Asia Pacific and NAFTA areas may require more time, which poses "additional risk in terms of declbadification of estimates".
The FCA stock is on the stock market it has corrected a lot since the new targets were released, but Banca Imi badysts have not ruled out increased volatility due to lower consensus estimates. On the other hand, "the confirmation of an additional dividend of 2 billion euros should represent support for the action in the coming months," they concluded to Banca Imi.
Source link
