Aid Bce, without risks for Italy. And in a serious way. There would be a cost of 13 billion with spreads of 400

There is no point in going too far or pretending that such a decision has no immediate repercussions on the Italian economy. The ECB will sooner or later halt the aid program or the quantitative easing. This is the gigantic operation of liquidity investment by the purchase of government bonds. In many badysts, I consider this action vital for public finances and the maintenance of even fragile balances. But even if you have indicated some precision of the backward step or so-called taper, the Frankfurt Institute is well aware that it is the next horizon. Yes, but when?

Stop to help the ECB, since when?

If it helps, there is a consolation for Italy: the interruption of quantitative easing will certainly be gradual or will not come fully reset in a week. And at least for a moment, it will be calm because with the renewal of bonds due, the European Central Bank will continue to buy Italian securities for about $ 3.3 billion per month. This happens because the current average duration of government bonds purchased by the ECB is about 9 years. This leads to estimates that up to 2027 can be paid each year due with subsequent repayment, securities for 40 billion euros

Spread and save expenses: what consequences

But wisdom and forethought require that you not be caught off guard, that is to say also and especially because – as economic badysts say for weeks – the end of quantitative easing is meant to alter market conditions and to facilitate rate hikes with all the consequences of the case for the end consumers. Trying to mortgage the scenarios, with the decline of the European Central Bank, the spread could reach 400 or exceed the threshold of alert. State spending would rise to 4 billion euros the first year, to 9 billion euros the second and more than 13 billion euros the third.

Record numbers that will only be possible to meet with sacrifices and renunciations. Like that to finance the expensive measures envisaged by the Italian executive. The first reference can only concern the income from citizenship, the introduction of which was promised in a legislature that is far from the point of view of public accounts. But we are only at the first bars.