All Trump games (and the movements of Europe)

ATeven those who do not like Donald Trump, even those who consider him a destabilizer dangerous with strong authoritarian tendencies, he must honestly acknowledge that in Europe today, he seems to be the only winner. During the first two years of the presidency, which will be submitted on Tuesday to US voters, Trump made it clear to us that the EU would prefer bilateral relations with each of its members to badert the full weight of the United States. United. ATWe have understood in these two years that multilateral treaties and agreements are designed to eliminate the president from many prisons because they limit the excessive power of America. And we now know that the United States wants to badert its vision of the transatlantic alliance and relations with Russia. In short, it is clear to us that the doctrine ofAmerica first It was not just a case of Steve Bannon's elections, but a clear vision, as advocated by Trump, to end America's international decline in Obama's last years and to restore primacy in "areas of interest". Use, in varying combinations, the tools of the economy and those of the military force.

Now, if we Europeans look around, what do we see? We see Germany resized from its internal political turmoil, we see Angela Merkel, hated by Trump, who is trying to resign in installments but is not sure to succeed. And we do not see, on the contrary, a leadership change ready to take over. France could theoretically please and occupy the space that Berlin will have to give up, but Emmanuel Macron does not seem able to seize the opportunity. The tenant of the Elysee has disappointed many hopes, trying to impose useful but unpopular reforms, and projects above all an image of arrogant security that does not bring him closer to the French. In Europe, he can hardly repeat the themes of his speech at the Sorbonne, which Merkel has only partially signed.

The combination of the crisis exploded in Germany and the slide in France will have a weight in the European elections of May 2019 and will immediately put Europe back on the wall even if the populist advance in the recent German regional elections was not as overwhelming as feared. Europe is without a guide while its institutions are exhausted, it lacks the reform project which, in the general opinion, is the only one that could perhaps revive it, is divided not only in the West (Brexit ) and East (Visegrad). ) but also in the south with the noisy Italian challenge, he says he wants to bypbad US sanctions against Iran that came into effect Monday, but in the meantime, companies are fleeing Tehran not to jeopardize their access to the US market . And while the threat of US tariffs continues to weigh, every big country has different ideas on how to tame Trump. In fact, the fragmentation of May before or after the elections is upon us and Trump can only rejoice with his enemy ally, Steve Bannon, who works with some success soon after the break-up of Europe.

And then there is another big blow of mallet carried by Trump in the "old" order: the will has announced the sending of the Inf file to the archives, the one that in 1987 had canceled the conventional and nuclear Euromissiles present in the Italian memory. Many things are not clear yet with the approach of the Trump-Putin meetings on November 11 in Paris (one hundred years after the end of the First World War) and the end of the month in Argentina (G20). Trump may be thinking of China and North Korea rather than Europe, but the Russian response will continue to create a race for rearmament in the European theater. It may be that Moscow is actually violating the treaty and that the United States decides to deploy anti-missile countermeasures only in Poland and the Baltic republics, in addition to the anti-ballistic batteries already present in Romania and in preparation for Warsaw .

He can be. But what we must understand is that Trump's gestureapparently inspired by this Bolton who has always wanted to test Russia's financial resources by challenging it in a nuclear race, has an unconfessed purpose that concerns us and which underlines our past guilt: if the cold war returned to us Europeans, Investors who have been investing for some years in security will inevitably fall back into the American line, and the ambitions of political autonomy will inevitably go in between.

The great realignment of global equilibrium finally speaks the language of Donald Trump. Even before the US "referendum" on Tuesday. However, for us Europeans, the moment has not yet come to bury our heads. Post-Merkel Germany may surprise, for example with the role of the Greens. Macron could understand that his style is wrong. The May elections could end without too many tables going down. And above all, we Italians will find ourselves at the forefront when it will be discovered that the sovereignists eat sovereignly, that Kurz (on the economy) and Orbán (on the migrants) are the rule and not the only one. Exception, because every nationalism, by its nature, must badert itself. , making no concessions to the nationalism of others.

A different Europe will come, but it is too early to predict what it will be. And it is said that missiles are able to bring Europeans back to the American fold. What would happen in Italy if Washington asked us to deploy missiles against Russia again? Are not they just rulers who love Trump, the first pro-Russian Europeans? And if Trump thinks of China and North Korea, Japan would accept, would South Korea accept? Trump's ally is ahead, but the 2020 presidential match is still open. And we play too.