Artificial intelligence and robots, how many jobs will they replace?

by John Hawksworth – Automation is certainly not new. Machines have gradually replaced human workers since the first industrial revolution.

This has occurred first in traditional agriculture and crafts, such as hand weaving, then in mbad production and, in recent decades, in many countries. many office and intellectual tasks.

The additional revenues generated by these technological advances have been recycled back into the economy, so that a new demand for human labor has always been generated. It was always like that. But a new generation of smart machines is slowly replacing many of the jobs.

What is the difference?

Although a number of new jobs would be created as in the past, it is feared that the relationship between jobs created and places destroyed will not be balanced this time around. Indeed, the cost of smart machines decreases over time and their capacity increases exponentially.

We know that in a few years, at least 30% of jobs in OECD countries are likely to be automated. Why do we know? Because in reality, they could already be replaced by existing technologies.

But this is not the whole truth.

In September 2018, a search for the United Kingdom and a new report on China were presented at the Tianjin World Economic Forum. What came out is very interesting.

First, it is not because a task has the technical potential to be automated that it will surely happen. Various economic, political, regulatory, social and organizational factors could block or at least significantly delay automation. As we said, 30% of jobs could already be automated, but that does not happen.

Secondly, AI and badociated technologies will also stimulate economic growth and create many additional employment opportunities, along with other technological innovations, from steam engines to computers.

In particular, systems and robots will increase productivity, reduce costs and improve the quality and range of products that companies can manufacture. As a result, successful companies will increase their profits, most of which will be reinvested in these companies or other businesses.

To remain competitive, businesses will ultimately have to transfer the bulk of these benefits to consumers in the form of lower prices, which will increase real income levels. This means that families will be able to buy more with their money and, as a result, businesses will have to hire additional workers to meet the extra demand.

Increasing purchasing power will create a new demand for goods and services that will require additional workers, particularly in areas that are more difficult to automate.

In any case, the big change, as in the case of past industrial revolutions, will lead to considerable disruption of the labor market and existing business models.

For example, in China, about 200 million existing jobs could disappear over the next two decades, forcing workers to invest in industrial sectors and places of new jobs.

Even if the phenomenon can be controlled in the short term, it is undeniable that an explosion of automation and economies of scale could upset the entire social system, based on the hypothesis that there is work for all.

Governments should immediately invest in retraining workers for new careers, strengthening their digital skills, but also reformulating the education system to focus on human skills that are less easy to automate: creativity, cooperation, personal communication and management skills and entrepreneur.

Companies also have a role to play in promoting a culture of lifelong learning among their workers. In short, the moment when we focused on certain activities seems to be over.

The future will be made of work, learning, teaching and free time that will no longer be different moments in our lives, but that will mingle to create something new.