Brexit, the contradictions of May: "Stop the Europeans looking for a job, only professionals"

LONDON – Theresa May is released from the most Brexitian ministers of her government, but continues to conduct two parallel negotiations: one with the EU and one with her own party. The EU presents a package of measures for a "sweet Brexit": the de facto customs union, the immigration immigration system, the recognition of judgments of the European Court of Justice as an arbitrator in litigation. His party has a not so "soft" Brexit: stop for Europeans looking for work (to the exclusion of "qualified professionals"), control of their borders, end of European jurisdiction.

The apparent contradiction is explained by its political survival. The Minister of Foreign Affairs Boris Johnson and Brexit David Davis were released, all key positions of the government are occupied by conservatives who in the campaign for the referendum there is two years to stay in the EU, including her (when she was Minister of the Interior).

On Monday, the 100-page white paper detailing his plan for negotiations with Brussels will be put to the vote in the House of Commons. The most anti-European current of conservatives, led by Jacob Rees-Mogg, threatens to vote against and could therefore fail him, joining the Labor, Liberal Democratic and Scottish opposition votes, however interested to create difficulties at Downing Street. It would be an embarrbading defeat for May almost as much as the vote of no confidence against him for the moment reported by his internal opponents. And he would come back to talk about his resignation. Or early elections. Or both.

Thus, in a perhaps desperate attempt to bring the rebel conservatives to his side, the Prime Minister nails them politically, dividing his plan for a hard and clear Brexit. But if so, why would Johnson and Davis resign?

The problem is that the line of ambiguity has allowed Theresa May to continue until now, but now the time for negotiations is narrowing, the knots come to comb and you have to uncover the cards, as indeed he began to do. The risk is that the Brexitians do not believe it. But that might be enough to maintain the Euro-skeptical public opinion. Between a bluff and the other, the big game Brexit continues. It's hard to predict who will win it.