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more than 220 the new "Normal situation" appears, writes Credit Suisse, but the deleterious effect on bank accounts will be levied on tangible own funds with a weight of 4% and a ratio This 1 down 20 basis points compared to the first quarter, and that's a pity, since meanwhile deteriorated exposures (NPEs) fell 31.5 billion euros mainly through the sale of MPS Banco Bpm and Bper . In this sense, badysts expect an overall NPE ratio down 12% from 14.2% in January-March.
More precisely, this charge of 3 billion dollars should weigh more on Unicredit for 1,060 billion, on Intesa Sanpaolo for 847 million, on Mps for 309 million, on Ubi for 360 million, on Banco Bpm for 300 million, on Bper for 56 million euros, for a total of 2.932 billion
And here is Credit Suisse's forecasts for the second quarter of 2018 bank by bank :
Intesa Sanpaolo outperform rating and target price 3 euro (from 3.2 euro): solid accounts, increases the coupon
Publication of data on 1 August
The broker lowered the target price from € 3.2 to € 3 after the publication of the Long-Term Incentive Plan, as the plan provides for an increase from € 8.7 to € 9.1 billion per year. 39; issue of 677 million euros new shares, equal at 4% of the total. However, it is thought that the bank headed by the CEO, Carlo Messina, is so solid (excess capital of 4.2 to 4.8 billion euros) that it will not be able to distribute more than 3, 2 but 3.3 billion euros. coupon this year and 3.5 billion (and no more than 3.4) in 2019. The calculation is based on a payout ratio of 85%. Specifically, revenues are expected to reach 4,435 billion euros compared to 4,806 billion in the first quarter (consensus 4,285 billion), operating costs to 2,380 billion 2,298 in the first quarter (consensus for 2 388 billion), pre-tax profit is expected to be 2 508 billion in the first quarter (consensus of 1 897 billion), provisions for loans to 650 million euros against 483 million in March (consent to 657 million). Finally, net profit is expected to reach 860 million euros, against 1.222 billion in the first quarter (consent of 862 million euros), down 31.3%
Unicredit, a note neutral and a target price of 16.5 euro: an eye on Turkey and the spread, under cost control
Publication of data on August 7
Credit Suisse stresses that the group led by the CEO, Jean Pierre Mustier, is the one to bear the brunt of the spread being one of the Italian banks with the largest number of state bonds in the portfolio. For every 10 basis points of increasing spreads, calculate Credit Suisse, Unicredit loses 3 points in the ratio of This 1. And the 100 points of difference from May have a negative effect of 30 basis points, equal to $ 1 billion on tangible equity. Analysts do not rule out the banking giant repeating another strong quarter in terms of NPEs reduction and the ratio of 1. That is, badysts expect dividend revenues to fall to 169 million euros compared to the previous March 189 million in March due to the collapse of the Turkish lira. As for revenues, badysts expect 2.9 billion against 5.131 in the first quarter (consensus at 4.916), operating expenses in line with the first quarter to 2.737 billion (consensus of 2.701 billion), the l? ebitda (gross operating profit) to 2.173 billion from March 2.366 billion (consensus of 2.215 billion), pre-tax profit of 1.244 billion from 1.389 billion (consensus of 1.302 billion), net profit of 911 million from 1.111 billion the period January-March (consensus of 964 billion). 19659004] Ubi, neutral notation and target price at 3.7 euros: good cost control, spreading presses on a non-high Cet1
Publication of data on 3 August
revenues are expected to decline slightly to 918 million euros from 925 million in the first quarter (consensus to 915 million), operating costs to 625 million from 623 in March (618 million consent) , earnings before tax at 144 million 195 three months ago and net profit at 88 million compared to the previous 124 (consent to 84 million). Analysts point to a gross NPE ratio of 12 billion (12.4 percent) compared with 12.4 billion (12.7 percent) in the first quarter. Tangible shareholders' equity is expected to rise from EUR 7.6 billion in the first quarter to EUR 7.2 billion in the second quarter with a negative impact of EUR 300 million due to the impact on equity capital. widening of the gap, so the pro forma ratio it should fall to 11.4% from 11.64% in March.
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