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"It's the world's biggest trade war and it's the United States": China tries to play the role of victim in the clash between the two superpowers, after the entry into force cross-border tariffs on 68 billion exchange dollars. For these Americans 25% on 34 billion dollars of Chinese badets, taken at midnight yesterday (New York time), Beijing reacted quickly with an equal and opposite reaction. And with a series of very critical statements against the White House. That of the United States, added the Ministry of Commerce, "is an act of commercial intimidation". All that is planned by the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, which for months have been trying to warn Washington: once the homework path is taken, it becomes very difficult to halt the spiral retaliation
. commercial war
Trump still raises stakes: rights on 505 billion euros
Not to be denied, President Donald Trump has pushed his escalating threats to the limit of the value of goods purchased from United States from China: during a visit to Montana, Trump said that its tariffs will hit Chinese badets worth $ 500 billion, against the $ 505 billion in imports in 2017. During in the coming weeks, high taxes will still hit 16 billion imports from China. The sectors concerned will again be those of the digital economy and technological innovation, in line with the final strategic goal of the White House: stop the development of the rival and defend the American record of high technology.
new countdown has already begun, in view of a move announced for months. Just as obvious will be the symmetrical response from Beijing, which has a value of US $ 130 billion worth, which is much lower for retaliation, but which could focus on services, where there is a bilateral deficit. "The trade war is never the solution," said Prime Minister Li Keqiang yesterday. But China does not intend to withdraw and has already brought the fight to the WTO.
Because the duties of Trump risk exploding the bubble of "emerging"
Scenarios: The Fed raises its alarm level
Analysts have been trying to predict economic damage for months. In the minutes of the June meeting, released on Thursday, the Fed gave the alert, noting that some companies have already begun to "reduce or postpone" planned investments because of "uncertainty about trade policies ". For the IMF, an average 10% increase in world import prices would affect world demand by 0.25-0.5%. For Commerzbank, companies will try to absorb some of the increases at the expense of profits, trying not to put their weight on consumers. In the short term, the impact will be sustainable. According to many badysts, rights on 100 billion Sino-US trade would subtract 0.1-0.3% from Chinese growth and even less from US growth.
The base scenario of the Bank of America predicts "only a modest escalation of the trade war this summer, but we can not rule out a total confrontation, likely to cause a recession". In a long-term perspective, says Commerzbank, the consequences will be heavy, as companies will have to review the linkage of production and distribution chains, the phases of which have been located all over the world (with China in a role key), looking for maximum efficiency. Trump's bonds will also affect Japanese, South Korean and Taiwanese companies that supply the components of machinery and electronics that China exports to the United States.
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