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OF OUR CORRESPONDENT
BERLIN – The Bavarian Csu, called "sister" of the CDU for the special alliance that binds the two parties, decides today to greet all the news European policies and bilateral agreements on refugees and migratory flows of first and second level that Angela Merkel has managed to negotiate in the last 48 hours. Alternatively, relying on the need for a hardening by unilateral actions of Germany on immigration, the CSU could decide today to go it alone by putting an end to the political cooperation agreement with the CDU: this unprecedented act, the government of the Great Coalition would collapse, jeopardizing the future of the Chancellor.
Migrants, Merkel gives in to hawks to survive at home. Decisive summit today with Seehofer
The Stakes
At stake the fate of GroKo (the current coalition government between Cdu-Csu and Spd), the future of Angela Merkel in the role of Chancellor and undisputed leader of politics in Germany, the survival of the CSU without "family relationship" with the CDU and the same Horst Seehofer as the leader of the CSU, mined by the current Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Sder who is increasing. The SPD also begins to make its voice heard: leader Andrea Nahles presented a plan on refugees, but categorically rejected unilateral national decisions, then sided with Angela Merkel.
German political commentators predict that Csu will survive this crisis, that there will not be a real break: Angela Merkel has publicly stated that the package of European measures and bilateral agreements (reinforced with the Spain and Greece and is defined with other 12/14 countries between which, for reasons other than Italy), are more than efficient and sufficient to meet the demands of Seehofer advanced in his position as Minister of the Interior. If Cdu-Csu still remains a fracture after this conflict, weaken a center-right system that guaranteed these two center-right parties to dominate the political scene of the post-war period.
The heart of 70,000 migrants expected to return to Italy from the EU
The Rebound of the Plot
In politics, however, twists are the norm and there remains on the table a possibility, albeit remote, of a top of Seehofer's head dictated by the motivations for local regional policy, with a view to difficult regional elections in October. After the last vote in Bavaria in 2013, which saw the first party CSU with 47.7% of the vote, the CSU Seehofer could lose the majority (polls report an approval of 40% or even less) and lose a big vote in favor of the far-right party Afd (Alternative fr Deutschland) founded in February 2013 and therefore not taking part in this year's regional elections. Afd was born as an anti-euro party but today it is becoming a party based on populism, anti-immigration patriotism and racist drift.
As unlikely as scenarios, the Minister of the Interior may decide today to resign dismissal by Angela Merkel announcing the will to make unilateral decisions at the Interior to implement the rejection at the same time. borders of non-irregular refugees, registered in other countries but who have applied for political asylum in other states and who have already had a rejection of the asylum application in Germany [19659010] Migrants, EU agreement on a voluntary basis. Macron: centers in countries of first arrival
The Marathon
Today, a real political marathon, began last night at 8:30 pm with a meeting in Berlin behind closed doors between the Chancellor and the head of the CSU and the Minister of the Interior. Interior Horst Seehofer – from whom nothing has fled – and is expected to end tonight with two separate statements from the CDU of Berlin and the Csu of Monaco. The program includes a series of meetings during the day, first a joint meeting then separate committee meetings in Monaco of Csu and Cdu of Berlin from 15. Then between 17 and 19 the two parties will make the point of the day close with two separate statements and separate announcements.
The maxi-buffalo of the ships Ong unmasked by the Gps
The two "sisters"
The political agreement between Cdu and Csu is unique and deeply ingrained, reflecting the political history of Germany after the Second World War and the following year. Federal installation of the country. In general elections nationwide, the CSU (with a strongly Catholic connotation) campaigns and collects votes only in Bavaria while the CSU (the most representative of the Protestant electorate) shows up to vote in the rest of Germany. The votes of Cdu-Csu converge towards a single electoral consensus, which saw the alliance reach 33% in the last elections of September 2017. The last poll sees Cdu-Csu go down to 31%, the SPD to 18%, the Afd at 15%, the Greens at 12%, the left party Linke at 10% and the liberal party DpP at 9%.
It is not said that Csu "detached" Cdu is able to collect votes on a national scale. A project on the table of Seehofer / Sder to transform the Csu into a national center-right party but more to the right of the CDU to recapture Cdu voters who have been lost in recent years: those who do not Did not like Angela Merkel turns to the left, and still regrets the decision to host 1 million refugees from Syria and Afghanistan in 2015, not to become a supporter of the Bavarian Csu but enlisted in the l 39; ; AFD.
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