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If we do not open the war, we miss it. International trade tensions are escalating more and more insidiously, almost entirely under the leadership of Donald Trump. Friday, the first tranche of duties imposed by the United States on imports from China, for a total value of $ 34 billion. If Beijing responds, as seems likely, Trump could raise the bar to reach a value equivalent to $ 400 billion worth of goods from the Asian giant. But not everything, indeed. There are also European rivals against the tariffs on their car industry, the (almost) secret plans of Trump for the exit of the WTO, the risky trade agreements … Let's see what are the unknowns that weigh more on the world trade war, the world war of air trade for months
The graph that explains who has the most to lose from a trade war with the United States
Usa-China, superdates arrive
The hottest front is between Washington and Beijing. On July 6, the first US tariffs against China began, intended to reach 818 products with a total value of $ 34 billion. In the following weeks, the basket of overpaid goods will be spread over other segments of goods, bringing the total value of imported imports to $ 50 billion. If China responds with similar measures, Trump intends to increase the total badets affected to a value of 400 billion dollars. Make calculations would rise to $ 450 billion, a figure almost equivalent to China's exports to the United States (stable around $ 500 billion, with a surplus over the United States of America). approximately 375 billion). But there is bad news for the White House tenant. Even though Chinese stocks opened on Monday with one of the worst stock market performances in the last three years, Chinese prices should not suffer further in the event of a conflict. A Bloomberg badysis reveals that the collapse of the customs duty market would lead to greater losses in the United States, given that China enjoys a magnificent isolation from shares traded in major financial centers of the world.
General Motors Vs. Donald Trump: the American auto giant rebels against customs duties
The EU responds with 300 billion euros
Not only does China respond to Trump's trade aggression. The European Commission, according to the Financial Times, sent Washington a warning (warning) where rights for $ 300 billion of US badets are expected in response to Trump's latest threat: "tariffs" 25 % on European cars, with an estimated impact of 45 billion euros on the industry of the Old Continent. The figure quoted by the Commission is roughly equivalent to European exports to the United States of cars and automotive components. The Trump measure has already angered producers, including all-American brands such as General Motors. The German BMW, which exports 70% of its vehicles from a plant in South Carolina, has feared sharp cuts in local employment.
Trump's plan: a law to break the WTO (and the rules on tariffs))
Divorce (?) From the WTO and NAFTA pending
When he is not engaged in a dispute with individual countries, Trump enters a collision race with supranational organizations. The American site Axios has considered a bill that would allow Trump to circumvent the fundamental principles of the World Trade Organization, the organization of world trade. In short, the tenant of the White House would self-allocate the ability to circumvent the rules of the most favored nations (countries can not set different tariffs for different countries apart from free trade agreements) and rates (the ceilings that can be agreed on the functions, ED). All this without the consent of the Congress, nor of course international agreements. Earlier, Axios himself had been talking about the WTO divorce proposal, and then denied it as a fake news from the US Treasury. Trump's reluctance to renew NAFTA, the free-trade agreement with Canada and Mexico expiring in the fall, is rather safe. A blow that would be added to the one inflicted on the nuclear agreement with Iran, the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris Agreement on the climate
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