If Europeans abandon Iran, Russia is ready to replace them

Trump's attempt to isolate Tehran, coming out of the nuclear deal and forcing European countries to digest new sanctions with the threat of hitting them too, risk being counterproductive for two main reasons. The first is that if the Iranian crude ceased to flow on the old continent (which accounts for 40% of Iran's exports), the result would be a likely rise in world prices, which could thwart Washington's efforts to push L & # 39; Saudi Arabia, Iran's big rival in the Middle East risiko, to increase production in order to lower prices. The second is that one of the world's leading oil producers would abandon once and for all the West (perhaps with a more uncompromising and anti-Western leadership in place of the moderate Rohani) to perhaps enter the Russian-Chinese orbit.

While China is the largest consumer of Iranian crude oil (600,000 barrels per day in December 2017), relations with Moscow are not only economic. The Iranian army has intervened in Syria alongside the Kremlin to defend the Assad government, although the Russians are now beginning to see their embarrbading presence as an obstacle to stabilizing the country. And Russian technology is the technology that has allowed the Islamic Republic to modernize its economy, as well as to launch its controversial nuclear program. It is in this context that Moscow would be ready to launch a $ 50 billion investment plan in the Iranian oil and gas industry. Investments that would solve the problems of obsolescence of the country's energy sector. The Federation, which is another big producer, is not very interested in Iranian hydrocarbons. Synergies, networks and the possibility of progressive integration are interesting.

Technical and military cooperation

Ali Akbar Velayati, international affairs adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, announces Moscow's intentions in the Financial Times. In recent days Velayati was on a mission to Moscow, where he also had an interview with Putin. "The technical and military cooperation with Russia is of enormous importance for Iran," noted a note from the Kremlin, "the discussion focused on Russian-Iranian cooperation as well as on the situation in the country. region, especially Syria, they reaffirmed their commitment to the JCPOA ", which is the Iranian nuclear deal that Trump wants to dismantle. A major Russian oil company, said the Iranian official, has already signed a $ 4 billion deal and the two state-owned energy giants Rosneft and Gazprom have begun negotiations with the Iranian Ministry of Oil for contracts of Worth $ 10 billion. . An agreement was signed a few months ago between a Russian-Iranian consortium composed of Zarubezhneft and the Iranian company Dana Energy, and the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) for the revival of the Aban and Payder fields, with a forecast of Total investment of $ 740 million. Moscow's energy minister, Alexander Novak, announced that he was studying an agreement to deliver finished products to Tehran in exchange for oil.

If you have corrections, suggestions or comments write to [email protected]