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The Italian economy slows down: GDP growth stops at + 1.2% in 2018 and then falls again, peaking at 1.0% in 2019. The International Monetary Fund revises downward the estimates for Belpaese, reducing it by 0.3 percentage point for this year and 0.1 point for the next and being more "pessimistic" compared to the European Union, at the Bank of Italy and the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer. The scissors compared to the April estimates contained in the World Economic Outlook are related to "greater spreads on government bonds and more stringent financial conditions as a result of recent political uncertainties ". The conditions that the Fund expects to "weigh on Italian domestic demand."
The loss of speed of the Belpaese recovery is also certified by the UPB, which forecasts GDP growth of 1.3% in 2018: observing the resilience of consumption but the decline in investment and exports Parliament's budget office reports a recovery job even though the area of underutilized resources is still wide. The UPB forecasts are in line with those of the Bank of Italy, which estimates an increase of 1.3 for 2018 and + 1% for 2019, and the European Commission, which talks about 39, a growth of 1, 3% this year and 1.1% the next. The slowdown in Italy – the IMF explains – is part of the braking of Euroland, including Germany and France. After + 2.4% in 2017, GDP in the euro area should "gradually slow down" to + 2.2% this year and 1.9% the following, 0.2 and 0, 1 percentage point below that of April. The forecast for the United States remains unchanged, at + 2.9% in 2018 2 to 2.7% in 2019, whose impetus continues thanks to the tax reduction of 1.5 trillion euros. dollars from Donala Trump. But the US sprint is likely to slow down: the United States is "vulnerable" to a global trade war, says the Fund, seeing the tariffs as the greatest threat to global growth
. Protectionism – says the Washington Institute – should be avoided because it risks derailing the recovery: the stake is 0.5% of global GDP by 2020, when the economy, with fixed cards, is expected to grow 3.8%. The evolution of US public finances is also worrying: in a context of high debt, a further increase in the already high deficit may cause the United States to lack the necessary tools to cope with a possible recession. Among the growing risks that accumulate in the economic horizon, there is greater political uncertainty in Europe, which 'faces fundamental political challenges on migrants, on fiscal governance and on the institutional architecture of the euro area ".
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