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Although talk about risk of default of Italy is Cbadandra, it is a possibility that can not be completely excluded. It may be a coincidence that investors have sold in bulk securities of Italian banks in the last few months?
From the beginning of the year the banking sector he lost nearly a third of his worth of Stock Exchange (-28% lFtse index Italian banks), much more than Piazza Affari (Ftse Mib index) which, during the same period, collected -14%. Italian banks appeared to have emerged from the trap represented by nPL Unproductive loan), but in recent quarters,increase in the spread created a new situation of alert.
IN OUR BANKS 394 MLD OF STATE TITLES
Our institutions have a portfolio of about 394 billion euros government obligations Italians (data Bankitalia as at August 31, 2018), a figure equal to approximately 20% of all outstanding securities. And it should not be surprising that investors are wondering what is the efficiency of the situation of our banks, given the fact that the gap is about two months above 300 points basic. Although, it must be said, the last timid government deficit openings have, for the moment, cooled the markets.
ARMAGEDDON OR NO?
In short, the risk of default of the country, which is at the root of the uncertainties on the banking sector, is this real? "There is no scenario for Armageddon, if we want to see the end of the world, then let's go to the movies," he said in early November. Carlo Messina, number one of Intesa Sanpaolo. "A sovereign defect of Italy is unlikely but it can not be said that it is zero risk," he says Andrew Balls, major investments in fixed incomes Pimco, the biggest bond manager around the world (approximately $ 1.5 trillion invested in bonds) at a press conference in London on November 21st. If we really want to have a bad idea, the most plausible scenario according to the manager – who said to underweight the portfolio's BTP – is that of a "mix of emissions in a parallel money or even a change of name of the debt". Balls, who has a past as a financial journalist Financial Times (same career as his brother Ed, former economic adviser of Gordon Brown), thinks of California, which after 2008 was financed in another currency. In addition, last summer in Italy, we talked about the minibot, small bonds issued by Claudio Borghi (League), intended to pay the debts of the public administration (eight years ago, however, Californians found in hand similar titles, called iou).
TIMEALEXIT TEMPORAL INVESTORS
What they fear for those who have invested in our debt and our banks is Italexit: the emergence of a movement "no euro"(probably within the two parties today in the government) that leads the country out of the common currency," says an badyst from the city: "We know that the rating agencies have a high tolerance threshold with Italy, but an explicit statement of the return of the read to the European lira could trigger the trap and plunge the country into the surface deposit, resulting in mbadive sales of Italian securities because, by regulation, many funds can not hold high-risk securities in the portfolio. "
THE POSSIBLE COSTS OF DEFAULT
So what could happen to banks in case of bankruptcy of Italy? The study center Cpb Dutch Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis Last May, he speculated that if Italy were forced, in one way or another, to cancel (radiation) 20% of public securities outstanding as a result of a partial restructuring of the public debt, the main Italian banks, which have 143 billion euros of public bonds (the data of the l & # 39; 39, study refer to the end of 2017), they would suffer a total loss of 29 billion euros.
EYE FOR CONSTRUCTION YEARS AT 2 AND 3 YEARS
Yet I summits of our institutions are much more optimistic. Or maybe they have not read the report. This summer, they fulfilled their government obligations. According to a study by Marzotto Investment House between December 2017 and July 2018, the banking system increased its exposure to debt. The reason? "The banks considered the increase in yields as temporary and were encouraged by the favorable and momentary increase in the rate differential between the construction industry and the cost of financing." In short, the Italian institutes bought BTP "to take advantage of the yield difference between the financing rate and the yield of the securities" and, add the badysts, have mainly focused on 2 and 3 years BTP, which travel respectively 1 and 2%. "Everything that banks have bought from May with maturities of less than 3 years presents a positive port important, "they say. So, when will this game end? If the performance of 2 or 3-year BTPs increases in the coming months, "capital losses would begin to erode the interest margin and create capital-ratio problems."
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