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The real test of resistance for Italian banks is the gap and the difficulty of selling bad loans at a good price. Waiting for the accounts of Intesa Sanpaolo By leaving tomorrow, Kepler Cheuvreux badysts took stock of the situation in the financial sector, calculating a global profit that should have gone from 2.2 billion euros a year ago to 1.87 billion euros on the 30th. last September. Here are the forecasts for Intesa Sanpaolo , Unicredit , Banco Bpm , Ubi Banca and Bper .
Intesa Sanpaolo (purchase note, price target at 2.7 euros): net profit up 21.1%
Publication of the quarterly report on November 6
The results should be supported by a decrease in costs (-2.3% year-on-year), thanks to the ongoing restructuring, while provisions, down 10.8% compared to 2017, are the result of the restructuring process. 39, relaxation of course. Revenues should be more contained (-0.5% over one year). Net interest income at 1.8 billion euros (-1.4% one year on the other) is expected to be affected by the September repayment of the loan of 5 billion euros. Glencore euros as part of the Rosneft operation. that Kepler estimates between 45 and 40 million monthly interest by Intesa , who are now less.
To this must be added the negative impact of the sale of 10.8 billion NPL in May, representing 30 million euros per quarter, as well as the slowdown in loan volumes. The volatility of the markets, the higher yield of construction and the seasonal effect (summer) will have a negative effect on net commissions, estimates Kepler, which is expected to decrease 2.5% year on year to 1.93 billion euros .
In summary, net interest income should reach € 1.8 billion in the third quarter, or -1.4% year-on-year, total revenue of € 4.213 billion (-0.5% on year), gross operating income at € 1.903 billion (+ 1.7% year-on-year), net provisions at € 605 million (-10.8% year-on-year), net profit at 787 million euros (+ 21.1% over one year). year).
Unicredit (not noted): derisory in the target. The future of Yapi Kredi
Publication of the quarterly report on November 8
Net profit is expected to fall to 971 million euros (3 billion in the first nine months of 2018), as last year the sale of credit badets promised in Italy at the auction house Dorotheum for a billion euros has been registered. The 1: 1 ratio should rise from 12.51% in the second quarter of 2018 to 12.3% due to the gap (-10 basis points over the June-September period) and a negative effect on exchange rates (-12/13 points). base after -10 basis points in the second quarter), while the operation with Dorotheum is expected to add 4 basis points.
Kepler adds that it would not be surprising that executives decide to devalue the 41% stake in Turkish company Yapi Kredi, which today presents a gap between the book value and the market value of 2, 5 billion compared to the current billion. The effect would be -12 basis points on the Unicredit Group 1 ratio for each cut of 0.5 billion euros.
On the subject, Unicredit He explained, in the presentation of the accounts of the second quarter, that "Yapi is a very good bank in a country that has a young population, well educated and excellent entrepreneurs" and that the Turkish Institute "represents less than 2% of our revenues Overall, a 10% change in the currency only affects 2 basis points of the group ". Yapi is also consolidated in equity from an accounting point of view. The only contribution to the income statement in relation to profit and loss "is the proportionate share of Yapi's net income in the dividend line, less than 2% of the group's income".
Analysts expect the risk mitigation process to continue in line with the corporate plan. In the third quarter, the gross bad debt ratio is expected to fall below 8.3%, also thanks to the sale of NPL 1.8 billion, while the NPE ratio is expected to reach 3.6% with a 60% coverage. , 2%. The target of 19 billion gross NPEs in the non-core division by the end of 2018 is available to brokers, with 21 billion gross NPEs expected at the end of September, compared with 22.2 billion in the end of September. June.
Net interest income is expected to total € 2,680 billion (+ 3.9% year-on-year), total revenues at € 4.919 billion (+ 0.5% year-on-year) and overall cost of € 2.825 billion (-5.3% year-on-year) year-on-year), gross operating profit of € 2.094 billion (+ 9.5% year-on-year), 1.095 billion euros (+ 10.5% year-on-year), net operating profit of 1.044 billion euros (+ 8.5% year-on-year), net income of 871 million euros (-69.1% over one year).
Bank Bpm (maintenance, price target at 1.8 euro): turnover down, profit up thanks to lower provisions
Publication of the quarterly report on November 7
Net interest income expected at 541 million euros (not comparable to that of last year due to the merger of the two banks, -0.1% qoq), total revenues of 1.063 billion (-6.2% quarter-on-quarter), total costs of 683 million euros (-8.4% year-on-year, -0.5% quarter-on-quarter), gross operating income of 380 million EUR (down 15% quarter-on-quarter), net operating income of EUR 70 million (+ 8.7% quarter on quarter), net provisions of EUR 310 million (-19% quarter-on-quarter), net profit of 176 million euros (+ 35.9% quarter-on-quarter).
Ubi Banca (evaluation buy, indicative price at 3.5 euros): unique items weigh
Publication of the quarterly report on November 7
Net interest income expected at 458 million euros (-0.1% qoq), total revenues at 889 million (-2.5% qoq), total costs at 621 million 39; euros (+ 3.2% quarter on quarter), EBITDA of 268 million (-13.5% quarter on quarter), net operating profit of 116 million (-25.3% quarter on quarter), net provisions 152 million (-1.6% quarter-on-quarter), a loss of 14 million euros.
The expected red color is expected to come from the net loss of 44 million euros resulting from the sale of the junior / mezzanine tranche of the NPL securitization, of more than 40 million exceptional costs badociated with the recent agreement with the unions and 38 million contributions to the bank system fund.
Bper (purchase note, indicative price at 4.2 euros): profits increase thanks to the reduction of provisions
Publication of the quarterly report on November 8
Net interest income is expected to reach 272 million euros, total revenues 489 million, total costs 327 million (+ 2.3% year-on-year), EBITDA 161 million, provisions for 104 million (-26.8%). year-on-year), net operating income of 57 million (+ 20.2% year-on-year), net income of 51 million (+ 71.6% year-on-year).
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