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The mid-term elections are a kind of nightmare for the presidents in office, since only two presidents have been appointed mid-term since 1934: Franklin Delano Roosevelt and George W. Bush. According to polls, the same fate, the "chastisement of presidents", could affect Donald Trump. To turn him into a lame duck, without the majority of Congress that supports him and then weakened in the last two years of his term.
Beyond the many predictions whose reliability can only be proven retrospectively, the outcome of the long American election night is deeply uncertain. The polls tell a challenge for the Democrats, to whom mathematics: the Senate, where they have more seats to defend between them, more than the effectiveness of their electoral strategy (in a local vote deeply connoted) the 35 that will be renewed should remain in the hands of Republicans; for the opposite reasoning, MPs are favored in the House because President Donald Trump's party has many more colleges to defend (or lose). Physiological trend, since the leader loses an average of thirty seats in mid-term elections and the resignation is enough to reverse the balance and the lame Trump. But where are the decisive challenges?
From California to Texas, via the Midwest, who contributed so much to Trump's victory in the presidency two years ago: there are about twenty duels whose stakes are more important, those called "tossup". It begins in Kentucky, where the first election result will be known: here in the sixth district, the surprise may come from Democrat Amy McGrath, known to be the first woman pilot of an F18 in Iraq and Afghanistan, who will face Senator Andy Barr, a well-known figure in local politics. Two years ago, Trump had won against Clinton, but now, in addition to Barr's now-obscure appeal, Trump's commercial war certainly played a role, having impacted the price of bourbon and Toyota's auto production costs. If he won McGrath, it would already be a first sign of the dem. From Trump.
Another major conflict is Indiana's Senate dispute: a difficult but not impossible seat for Democrats led by "conservative" Joe Donnelly, opposed to Republican Mike Braun. Here, US Vice President Mike Pence is at home and, in the presidential election, Trump has posted 19 Clinton points. The challenges for the Senate are interesting for Arizona and Nevada, where the issue of immigration is very strong, but in 2016, the first won Trump's victory in the second Clinton.
The attention is obviously turned to Florida, for the Senate but also for the choice of the new governor: Tallahbadee Mayor Andrew Gillum, he plays with Republican Ron DeSantis, trumpista of the first hour. If the Democrats could get it, they could give the first black governor to the east coast state. Gillum in the most recent polls has a slight advantage, but with a margin of error. But Florida, along with others, is the swing state par excellence, and Republicans dream of stealing Senator Bill Nelson's outgoing chair, thanks to Rick Scott.
The seventh district of the House of Virginia is also on the right track: Republican for decades, it is considered this time as being in danger for the party of Donald Trump represented by David Brat, during his second term. Against him, the dems have deployed a woman, a former CIA agent, Abigail Spanberger, able to awaken the democratic base with progressive battles against immigrants and health care.
If in the 14th district of New York, the match already seems to be won by the one that the American press has christened as the new democratic star, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the most uncertain is the clash of the Senate in West Virginia. For Senator Joe Manchin, the arduous task of defending the seat of Republican candidate Patrick Morrissey, perhaps a weak name in a state, however, saw the overwhelming victory of Trump just two years ago. In Michigan, in the historically red eleventh district, the challenge concerns two women in the first experience on the political scene, at least as protagonists: Dem Haley Stevens vs. Lena Epstein, polls give slightly the first advantage.
Eyes naturally on Texas, traditionally 'red'. For the House, watch the seventh district, once a bastion of the Gop, won by a Hillary Clinton whiskey in 2016: Republican John Culberson if he sees it with Democrat Lizzie Fletcher. The Senate race compares an old Republican lion, the outgoing Ted Cruz, formerly a White House nominee, and Democrat Beto O. Rourke, a rising star of the Democratic Party who could become the first Texas senator of decades. The race is very difficult, but if you do it for the Democrats, you will want to indicate that the long wave has started.
In Georgia, where you also vote for the governor (the dem Stacey Abrams hopes to become the first African American governor, but if you have to do with Georgian Secretary of State Brian Kemp), the race for the seat of the House is also interesting . Republican Karen Handel, who elected her in a special election in 2017, sees her with a woman who fights for one of the historic battles of the American progressives, the biggest arms control : Lucy McBath saw her son die for a quarrel caused by loud music.
In the seventh district of the New Jersey House, Republican Leonard Lance, who represents the region since 2008, and Democrat Tom Malinowski. This is an important duel for the Democrats who are hoping for us (Malinowski in the two polls last week), as they also hope in Pennsylvania: in the House Republican Brian Fitzpatrick sees it with the Democrat Scott Wallace, who spent significant sums on his campaign, particularly with his philanthropic foundation, the Wallace Global Fund.
Once the seats in Colorado, Louisiana, Nebraska, New Mexico and Wisconsin are closed, the Midterm in Minnesota will have to be seen: In the House, Republican Erik Paulsen defies Democrat Dean Phillips in the suburbs of Twin Cities, where Clinton won nine points. At this point (at 4:00 am Italian time), the outcome of the collision should be clear. Later, they close the seats in Iowa and Nevada, then California, where in the tenth district of the House, sailor Jeff Denham will be confronted with a young Democrat, Josh Harder, who could cause him a lot of problems. At six o'clock, the last seats will be closed, those of Hawaii and Alaska. But at this point, Donald Trump will have already understood what step, if he is sent or lame, will head to the presidential elections of 2020.
You also vote for referendums. The main questions:
– ABORTION – In Alabama, Oregon and West Virginia, voters will be asked to comment on measures that may limit the right to terminate pregnancy. In Alabama, a proposal would amend the state constitution to "recognize and support the sanctity of life before birth and the rights of unborn children, including the right to life". In Oregon, it is proposed to ban public health programs to cover GVI, while in West Virginia, the Constitution needs to be amended as it is not "guaranteed or protected from the law to abortion or sought funding for an abortion ".
– DELETE SLAVERY – Colorado voters are asked to comment on the possibility of revising the constitution for the abolition of certain rules relating to slavery and forced exploitation. Slavery is already illegal in the state, but is not used as punishment. Two years ago residents were asked to comment on this, but the referendum had not yet taken place and the constitution had not changed.
– TRANSGENRE – In Mbadachusetts, transgender people are protected: voters decide to reject a 2016 law banning gender-based discrimination in public places, such as hospitals or theaters. There are 19 states that have laws of this type in the United States, as well as various cities. After the escape of a Trump proposal to remove the protections afforded to transgender people, the referendum could be a test to probe popular opinion.
– FREE SPINELLO – In Michigan, we are voting for the legalization of cannabis for recreational purposes, applying the same rules as for drinking, including the minimum age of 21 for possession and consumption. In Utah and Missouri, we are voting for the legalization of marijuana for medical purposes.
– TAX THE SILICON VALLEY – In San Francisco, the vote is "Proposition C", a tax that divides large-scale advanced technology to deal with the emergence of homelessness, also caused by rising rents for the presence of the giants of the web and technology. The initiative provides a contribution of 0.5% on the net income of companies whose turnover exceeds $ 50 million.
– IMPOSED ON TOBACCO – Voters in South Dakota are expected to vote for a measure that raises taxes on smoking to fund schools and reduces high tuition fees for college students.
– OBLIGATION TO ELEVATE – Among the measures to be voted also that in California to impose on farmers the obligation to give more space to chickens from eggs, on pain of selling their products. Same rules as for other farm animals, from breeding pigs to calves.
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