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It will be necessary to postpone this year's budget until the end of December, but to date, the indications from the main stock indexes, while being different, are often not very encouraging. "Data-reactid =" 22 "> It is missing about a month since the end of 2018 and as every year in this period, the business banks are already starting to report with financial market forecasts for the next 12 month.
This year's budget should be postponed until the end of December, but to date, the indications from the main stock market indices, while being different from each other, are often not very encouraging.
Bags: a disappointing 2018 year for investors
For example, on Wall Street, only Nasdaq Composite is up slightly from near 2017, while the Dow has lost about half a point and the S & P500 is currently at the same level as Late last year, in gains, gains were recorded especially in the first part of 2018.
<p clbad = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The situation is even worse in Europe where, for example Dax30 at the beginning of the year shows a drop of more than 12%, almost identical to that of the Fse Mib, while the Cac40 has a loss of about 6%.
While waiting to know what the final 2018 budget will be, investors are already looking for indications and forecasts on what will be next year and what positive or negative surprises it can reserve on the stock market. "Data-reactid =" 25 "> The situation is even worse in Europe where, for example, the Dax30 at the beginning of the year shows a fall of more than 12%, almost identical to that of the Ftse Mib, while the Cac40 records a loss of about 6%.
While waiting to know what will be the final budget of 2018, investors are already looking for indications and forecasts on the situation next year and on the positive or negative surprises that he can book on the stock market.
Société Générale: bearish vision of the new year
<p clbad = "canvas-atom-text-canvas Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The reports that have been published up to now Overall, the picture is encouraging for 2019, as several badysts do not exclude additional capital appreciation.
On the other hand, the point of view of Societe Generale's strategists is less optimistic, according to which the next year will be another difficult year for global equity, thus proposing a prediction similar to that formulated for 2018. "data-reactid =" 27 The reports published so far have provided a generally encouraging picture for 2019, as several badysts do not exclude additional capital appreciation.
On the other hand, the point of view of Societe Generale's strategists is less optimistic, according to which the next year will be another difficult year for the global shareholder, thus proposing a forecast similar to that formulated a year ago for 2018.
<p clbad = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Experts remember that during this same period 2017 had spread its outlook for this year, with a bearish outlook on the stock markets and what has happened so far in the markets can only support this forecast, given that the MSCI (Frankfurt: 3HM.F – new) global equity markets lost just under 10% from last January's highs. The experts recall that, during the same period in 2017, they had extended their perspectives for this year, presenting the bear market view and what has happened so far on the markets. can only give reason to this forecast, given that to date, the MSCI (Frankfurt: 3HM.F – news) of the world stock markets lost a little less than 10% at the peaks of last January.
Starting in mid-2019, stock markets will begin to ease a US recession
According to Societe Generale, the S & P500 has probably already reached its maximum potential this year and predictions on the price list, often considered by many parties as a global benchmark, are far from encouraging for 2019, including from the second half.
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<p clbad = "web-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Analysts are in fact convinced that bears will stay away Fellowships starting in the second half of next year, when fears related to the health of the US economy will become increasingly burdensome and pressing.
The United States should be able to go into recession in 2019, but such a shift will occur between the beginning and the middle of 2020, according to Societe Generale. "Data-reactid =" 33 "> Analysts are In fact, they are confident that bears will stay off the stock exchanges from the second half of next year, when fears related to the health of the economy American will become more and more heavy and urgent.
It is clear that the US could enter a recession in 2019, but such an evolution will occur between the beginning and the middle of 2020 according to Societe Generale.
Stay away from the shareholder during the first half of next year
As financial markets generally move six months in advance, they will dismiss the specter of a recession in the US as of the second half of 2019, which is why badysts advise to leave the stock before this date, always. however, they see a potential downward trend for global equity indices over the next 12 months, precisely because of weak performance that will be concentrated in the second half of 2019.
Expectations for European trade: the Ftse Eb is the least favorite index
<p clbad = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "With regard in particular to the European stock exchanges, Company Le General has seen a moderate growth potential in the first half of next year, while in the second, the focus will be on the rise in ECB interest rates (Toronto: BCE-PRA.TO – new"data-reactid =" 37 "> As regards European stock markets in particular, Societe Generale expects a potential rise in the first half of next year, while in the second half, the main will be put on the interest rate hike of the ECB (Toronto: BCE-PRA.TO – news).
On the Old Continent, the preferred index is the Cac40, which is expected to reach 5,200 points in mid-2019, then close the year at 4,500 points. The least preferred is the Fib Mib, which we see at 18,000 points at the end of the first half of 2019, with a drop of up to 16,000 at the end of the year.
On the other hand, for the Dax30, badysts initially estimate an increase to 11,750 points, followed by a decrease of up to 11,000 points.
<p clbad = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "It will not be much better from the other Atlantic side, where the S & P500 is expected to reach 2,650 points in mid-2019, then finish the year in the 2,400 zone, at values well below current levels.
& nbsp; "data-reactid =" 40 "> There will be little better on the other side of the Atlantic, where the S & P500 is expected to settle at 2,650 points in mid-2019, then end the year in the 2,400 zone at values well below the current ones.
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