Surprise, the recovery is seen more in Italy than in Europe: occupied with a considerable increase

In May 2018, the estimate of employees shows a significant increase (+ 0.5% compared to April, ie +114,000).

Yet the Minister of Economic Development and Labor, Luigi Di Maio notes how the data is misleading: "It's a record of precariousness". The data from the ISTAT, adds the minister, "reveal the contracts" that exist. "Today, in the Dignity Decree – highlights the leader of the M5 – we are beginning to dismantle this part of the job that has created precariousness in Italy". The goal, he notes, "also goes through relationships with companies that have to stop spending money for bureaucracy in order to create more resources for the economy and employees." "

] The National Institute of Statistics shows that the employment rate increased in May to 58.8% (+0.2 percentage points from the previous month) . The economic growth of employment concerns men (+80,000) and women (+35,000) and concerns the 25-34 year olds (+31,000) and especially the over 50s (+98,000). Permanent employees (+70,000) and term employees (+62,000) increased in the last month, while self-employed workers (-18,000) showed a slight decrease after the increase of the previous two months.

In May, unemployment fell to 10.7%

In May, the unemployment rate was 10.7%, down 0.3 percentage points monthly base, while the 31.9% (-1 percentage point). The ISTAT according to which the estimate of people looking for a job in May recorded a sharp decline (-2.9%, or -84 thousand). The decline in unemployment affects both bades and all age groups

In May, the estimate of inactive between 15 and 64 is still slightly down (-0.1 %, -13 thousand). The decline affects men and is concentrated among the over 50s. The inactivity rate remains stable at 34%

The recovery is strengthening: the number of unemployed is decreasing

Over the period March-May 2018, a strong growth of the badets is estimated (+ 0.9% by compared to the previous quarter, at +212 thousand). The increase affects both the components of the genus and concerns people aged 15 to 34 (+63,000), but especially the over 50s (+168,000). All professional categories increased during the quarter: +38 thousand permanent employees, +70,000 self-employed and +105 thousand temporary employees. Employment growth during the quarter was accompanied by a decline in the unemployed (-0.5%, -15,000) and the strongest inactive (-1.4%, – 191,000).

Reinforced employment growth (+ 2%, +457 thousand). Expansion concerns men and women and is concentrated among fixed-term workers (+434,000), while permanent workers remain essentially stable and self-employed workers are slightly up (+19,000). Employees over 50 (+468,000) and 15 to 34 (+106,000) increase, while those aged 35 to 49 (-116,000) are down. If we exclude the demographic component, there is a positive sign for employment in all age groups. The number of unemployed decreased significantly (-5.2%, -153 000) and the number of unemployed between 15 and 64 years (-2.6%, -345 000).

United States and China

Italian industrial production returns to growth in the second quarter of 2018, but is progressing slowly. The expected cyclical variation for the average of the spring months is + 0.2%, following the 0.3% drop recorded in the first quarter. This trend is explained by the rebound in activity recorded in May (+ 1.1%, after -1.2% in April) and by a strong stabilization in June (+ 0.2%) [19659002] The Confidence of manufacturing contractors which has worsened progressively since March, is in line with a weak trend in industrial production in the coming months, notably due to the slowdown in foreign demand. In June, industrial production rose 0.2% from May, when a recovery of 1.1% was estimated in April. This is what results from the results of Confindustria Study Center

In the second quarter of 2018, there was a cyclical variation of + 0.2%, after -0.3% in the first quarter. ; the third quarter inherits a variation of + 0.2%. Production, net of various workdays, rose 2.1% in June compared to the same month of 2017; in May, it increased by 3.1% year-on-year. Although slowing, the annual increase in average daily output remains robust over the last two months and reinforces the positive trend that began two years ago. Volume orders increased by 0.3% in June compared with the previous month (+ 2.4% in June 2017) and in May by 0.6% in April (+ 3.2% per year)

Qualitative indicators Manufacturing activity continued to decline in May and June and signals the persistence of a significant weakness of activity in the coming months, mainly due to the fact aggravation of foreign demand.

the expectations of entrepreneurs (Istat survey) are indeed less positive for fears related to the growth prospects of Italian exports, compromised by aggressive US trade policies and the contextual (and prospective) slowing of demand from the main European partners . 19659015] the weakening of foreign demand is also confirmed by the quarterly survey of exporting companies, among which the opinions on export sales in the second quarter are are degraded. and expectations about the dynamics of foreign demand during the summer months have become more negative; in addition, the share of companies complaining of the presence of significant obstacles to the export business has increased.

The recovery is there? More in Italy than in Europe

Among the surprises of the economic data the index on the activity of small and medium industries that sees itself in "the slowdown in Europe – very weak for a year and half – while in June Italy is in counter-evidence ". According to the Ihs Markit index, in the peninsula, the manufacturing sector marked the first strengthening since the beginning of the year, rising from 52.7 in May to 53.3 points

. The development indicates a stabilization of the sector after the contraction, but adds that despite the increase in employment, the risks persist: optimism about future activity has reached its highest level. down in more than five years, he warns – and increases the pressure on costs, especially the price of steel. "

Also because on average in the monetary union the trend is different, at precisely slowing.The Index of Purchasing Managers (Index for SMEs) for the l 39; the whole area fell to 54.9 points in June, from 55.5 points in May, the lowest in 18 months.The final figure was also the subject of a filing relating to the Preliminary estimate and reflects the weakening of production growth and new orders from builders.

According to Markit, the values ​​of the PMI index were lower in five countries among the countries. survey, including those reporting the best results, the Netherlands and Austria, and weaker expansions also occurred in Germany, Greece and France, with the latter falling at the bottom of the rankings. While the slight acceleration in Italy was not enough to avoid the penultimate position

L & # 39; Political uncertainty dampens optimism

Production and new orders have seen a sharp slowdown in growth since the end of 2017, with interest rates June was the month of lower from November 2016 to August 2016. Consecutive, this had an impact on optimism, which fell to its lowest level in over two and a half years, according to a press release. "The biggest concern comes from the extent of the deterioration in export growth since the beginning of the year and how it could deteriorate rapidly," said Chris Williamson, chief economist of Markit. "The survey also shows how companies are expressing more and more concerns about the impact of tariffs and the trade war and how they are preparing for other losses in the export market. . "

"At the same time, there are signs The political uncertainty slows optimism, a phenomenon particularly evident in Italy – says Williamson – who, unsurprisingly, was the nation that reached in June penultimate place, just before France ".