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The usual monthly update of the political scenario records the substantial stability of the government: indeed, a month ago, 57% of Italians expressed a positive opinion on the executive, while the negative ratings increased slightly (from 32%). % to 33%). and the satisfaction index dropped by one point, from 64 to 63. The consensus for President Conté decreased by two points, from 60% to 58%, critics increasing by 3 points (from 30 % to 33%), the satisfaction index drops from 67 to 64 and remains higher than that of Vice Presidents Salvini (58) and Di Maio (51), reported last week in this column. Five months after the inauguration, the government's appreciation is at the highest level of the last six executive peers, followed by the Letta (60), Renzi (56) and Berlusconi (53) governments, while Prime Minister in second place, preceded by Renzi (70) and getting the same index of Enrico Letta (64), two points higher than that of Monti (62).
The majority
The stability of judgments on the executive is surprising, given the strong tensions that emerged last month within the majority and the considerable differences between the voters of Lega and M5S, in terms of profile, territorial areas and issues. . And in fact, if you look at the experiences of the past, the weakening of the cohesion of the majority, the governments began to lose consensus, as happened for example with the executive headed by Prodi and Berlusconi. For the moment, the government of Conte seems to give only few commitments: it is the difficulties that have appeared between the two forces of the majority that reflect more confidence in the party leaders and the intentions to vote than in a consensus for the executive power, whose main characteristic is trust. is based more on a contract than on an alliance, more on a mutual commitment than on a full harmony of values. In short, a kind of marriage of reason. It follows that most voters in the Northern League and Pentastellate have internalized the compromise that underlies the contract and are prepared to accept for the moment undesirable measures to obtain those supported by their political party.
Guiding lines
All this seems to us to have more thoughts on the voting guidelines: a month later, the league's growth that reaches the highest value of all time (34.7%), followed by the M5, is stable at 28.7% (+ 0.2%), followed by the Democratic Party with 16.5% (-0.6%) and Forza Italia with 8.7% (+ 0.9%). Most of the detachments in the ranking are placed, at 2.7%, + Europe, stable on the results of 4 March, and the Brothers of Italy, down from the policies, then 2.1% for the Leu. Compared to the general elections, the center-right increases from 37% to 46.5%, exceeding the implicit threshold of 40% which would guarantee the majority, the center-left is less than 20% (-3%) and the M5S back. dots. The League can count on a very loyal electorate – 85% of those who voted in the political category will confirm its vote – and on an extraordinary ability to attract new voters: just think that more than half (54%) those who would vote for this today did not vote for Salvini's party on March 4 and come out at 16% from M5S, 16% from abstention, 12% from Forza Italia, 4% of another party center and 3% of the Democratic party. Compared to the previous month, the Lega is confirmed in the northern regions, well over 40%, and in the North Center (32.5%), while it is strengthened in the southern regions, in favor of a quarter of the electors. The M5S clearly ranks first in the central and southern regions (while it is declining sharply in the northern and central regions) and, compared to the policies, it highlights a loyalty of votes cast by two out of three voters and a lower – but far from negligible – possibility of attracting new voters (nearly one in five).
The crisis of the left
The PM suffers not only in the southern regions, where it is between 12% and 13%, and in the north-east (13.6%), but also in the traditional settlement areas (Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany, Marche and Umbria), where it ranks third, overtaken by the League and the M5S. Finally, Forza Italy, which is experiencing a significant contraction in the consensus, can count on a modest vote of loyalty (only 49% of them would confirm their vote in Berlusconi's party, 27% would vote for Lega and 18% would vote for it). and would find it difficult to attract new voters, retiring in both the Northwest and the South. In short, the current scenario has seen profound changes in policy, but it would be illusory to think that it could be maintained as it stands until the 26 May European elections. In the center, regional elections in Basilicata, Abruzzo and Sardinia will be an important health indicator for parties and their leaders.
November 2, 2018 (modification November 2, 2018 | 21:45)
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