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There has been a lot of unhappiness in Houston in recent years despite the Rockets’ eight straight playoff appearances. James Harden has traveled two coaches and three co-stars in search of the Larry O’Brien Trophy, and after another disappointing playoff outing, Harden’s new wish became clear. As the Rockets cling to the relevance of the Western Conference, The Beard envisions a new destination, aiming to team up with Kevin Durant in Brooklyn. Houston enters 2020-2021 with the longest active playoff streak in the NBA. But the Rockets were anything but a pillar of stability for nearly a decade of the Harden era.
It’s easy to berate Harden for wanting to leave the Rockets. The 2017-18 MVP has two more years on his contract, and it’s not like he’s running a franchise that doesn’t want to run a championship. Houston has bled its temporary capital in search of talent to place around Harden, and the property backed its wish to trade for Russell Westbrook last year. The franchise has been designed specifically for Harden for much of the past decade. He shares a lot of guilt for the squad’s shortcomings both in previous seasons and in 2020-21.
It might not be completely unfair for Harden to see a new situation. Western Conference member Damian Lillard has stayed with the Blazers despite the franchise’s shortcomings, but Harden is on another level as a player. He’s a former MVP with three second places. He won three consecutive titles in 2020-2021. A player of his caliber has every right to chase a championship, even if that means leaving where he is called home for nearly a decade.
The reasoning behind Harden’s trade demand can be debated later. What is more pressing is the decision for the Rockets. Houston enters 2020-2021 at a crossroads for the franchise, armed with a new coach and a new general manager after the off-season departures of Mike D’Antoni and Daryl Morey. There is the obvious temptation to hit the reset button after a disappointing playoff run, especially given limited draft capital and cap space ahead. The Rockets could dispatch Harden for an impressive haul, find a suitor for Russell Westbrook and dive into the next era with player development ace Stephen Silas at the top of the list. But such a decision would ultimately be misguided. Rockets need to be cautious in Harden trade talks. Sell too low and the franchise could be crippled for years.
John W. McDonough / Sports Illustrated
There are two obvious landing points for Harden: Brooklyn and Philadelphia. There is the urge to consider other options for the old MVP, but don’t expect many suitors to be seriously considered. Franchises are unlikely to participate in the Harden tender unless they commit after 2021-2022. This is unlikely to be the case for a team outside of the two Eastern Conference contenders. Despite the limited market, the Rockets should be able to receive significant value for their franchise anchor. But the most popular option is frankly untenable at the moment.
Brooklyn was considered the clubhouse chief for Harden’s services, largely at the behest of the three-time goal scorer. But in their current form, it’s hard to see the Nets conjure enough value to unite Harden with Durant and Kyrie Irving. Spencer Dinwiddie, Caris LeVert and Jarrett Allen are all good players, with LeVert standing as an All-Star on the sidelines (at least in the East). Brooklyn also has plenty of choice capital at its fingertips, but even its kitchen sink offering falls short of what’s required for Harden. The three youngsters and the additional selection capital are likely to land Houston in a dreaded location, possibly outside the top of the lottery, but also far from playoff contestation. Being stuck in the playoff fringe was Morey’s nightmare, and the urgency to change the franchise led to the acquisition of Harden in 2012. Flipping Harden for a pool of assets would bring Houston back to the dreaded zone Morey has. worked so hard to avoid.
So what about Philadelphia? From the Rockets’ perspective, dealing with Morey and the 76ers is probably the more prudent course. Dealing Harden would likely bring back Ben Simmons and another active or two, marking the most effective path to a potential lightning rebuild. Laugh at Simmons’ triple phobia if you like, but the LSU product remains one of the best young assets in the NBA. Simmons is a truly dominant transitional force. He’s one of the best defensemen in the league and his kick isn’t as irreparably shattered as his reputation suggests. If Harden is determined to leave Houston when his contract expires, landing Simmons is a pretty formidable consolation prize.
The Harden-for-Simmons noise is frankly little more than a rumor at the moment, setting the stage for a bit of a showdown between Houston and its franchise anchor. The Rockets have noted they are “ready to get uncomfortable” in Harden trade talks, and frankly, that’s the way to go to get into 2020-21. Patience is a virtue in the NBA, especially given the issue at hand. The Rockets don’t need to rush if Harden is ready to speak on opening night.
There is some optimism in Houston regarding the Harden situation. Houston retooled its roster in the offseason, adding dynamic forward Christian Wood in one of the more astute moves of the offseason. Maybe the Rockets find their mojo with a full and healthy Russell Westbrook season, get a three seed in the West, and convince Harden to stick around for the long haul. That’s probably wishful thinking, but there’s no harm in going back and trying for the title with a pair of MVPs in the backcourt. Harden’s free agency isn’t for two more seasons. Houston might as well snatch one more year from Harden before it dips into a new era.
The Rockets are in a similar predicament to the Pelicans with Anthony Davis in 2019. The rumbles of Davis’ departure began with two years left of his contract, and the Pelicans continued to play hardball until Davis was handled by the Lakers before last season. Maybe the math would be different for a minor player. A single All-Star is much more valuable with two years left on his contract compared to just one season, but for a player of Harden’s caliber, the extra year is almost irrelevant.
Neither Brooklyn nor Philadelphia are reducing their offer if Harden is still in Houston after 2020-2021. The Rockets are in the driver’s seat. They must be patient with Harden and demand a real star in return. Maybe that player is Simmons. Maybe Brooklyn can find the right asset (hello, Bradley Beal) in a three-team deal. Either way, the Rockets’ directive is clear. Selling at a low price on Harden would be an abject disaster. Playing this process slowly is a necessity, even if it comes with a season of discomfort.
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