[도소매] Confidence of consumers (November 1996 consumption psychology index)

The November consumer confidence index fell to 96.0, down 3.5 percent

The November consumer confidence index dropped from 3.5p to 96.0.

, The largest decline in four months, resulting in the lowest level in 21 months (March 2013, 96.3).

The contribution index of the consumer psychology index is as follows.

(-0.2 pMoM), 2) outlook on living conditions (-0.3 pMoM), 3) household income forecast (-0.8 pMo)

4) Forecast of consumer spending (-1.1 pMo), 5) Current economic judgment (-0.5 pMoM), 6) Forecast for the future (-0.6 pMoM)

1) concerns about the domestic and international economic slowdown, 2)

It is difficult to make a direct comparison with the previous index since a regular reorganization of the sample was carried out last month (2,200 households → 2,500 households, newly constructed sample of households by region and age ).

However, even with this in mind, consumer sentiment has reached an extremely low level, with impeachment at the beginning of 2017 (92.8 in January, 93.9 in February and 96.3 in March). .

The consumer confidence index (CSI -5p, CSI -5p forecast) is particularly deteriorated, as the consumer confidence index has declined in all six categories.

Deteriorating external conditions and stagnant employment continue as a result of the US-China trade war and rising US Federal Reserve interest rates.

If the US summit on December 1 is a success, it is likely to be possible to somewhat improve consumer confidence in consumption, but it is too early to expect a recovery in consumer spending. household consumption because it is difficult to improve the job market. .

The CSI unemployment outlook also fell 4 points this month.

The consumption index (CPI) is essentially the advanced economic index (CPI), as the four indices making up the six-month forecast are compared to the current forecast.

However, we can see that the anxiety of the future leads to a contraction of preventive consumption, so we can say that this is the current situation.

In conclusion, we believe that it is unlikely that the retail sector sees a positive outlook from the top down and we maintain our view that: 1) it should improve on a weak base and 2) from the bottom to the top.