3rd drop in the total fertility rate to 0.95 … Birth

In the third quarter of this year, the birth rate fell to 80,000 units, the lowest level in three years. The total fertility rate fell to 0.95.

The National Bureau of Statistics predicted that the total fertility rate would drop to less than 1.0 this year and that the future demographic cliff would widen.

According to statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics on September 28, the number of newborns in September decreased by 4,000, or 13.3%, to 26,100 from September.

The number of newborns has fallen to a minimum since 1981, the beginning of the monthly statistical data for September. This decline is the first double-digit growth recorded this year.

The number of newborns declined for the 34th month compared with the previous year and since it began counting in 1981, it has registered the lowest record for 30 consecutive months of late. April 2016 to August this year.

The number of babies born in the third quarter of this year decreased by 9,200 (10.3%) compared to the same quarter of last year,

The total fertility rate, the number of children likely to give birth to a life, fell to 0.95 in the third quarter, down 0.10 from the previous year.

The total fertility rate fell to 0.94 in the fourth quarter of last year, but reached 1.07 in the first quarter of this year, but fell to 0.97 in the second quarter and to 0.95 in the second quarter. third trimester.

Korea's total fertility rate is less than half the total fertility rate required to maintain the population.

This is much less than the average of 1.68 out of the 35 member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Kim Jin Sung, head of the Population Trends Department, said, "The fertility rate is expected to fall below 1.0 this year as it tends to decline in the fourth quarter." This means that women do not have children during the procreation period.

"It is shocking to see that the cliffs of the population can become clogged because they represent half the number of births needed to maintain the population," he added.

Korea is in a phase of rapid decline in the proportion of the population aged 15-64. The percentage of the population aged 15 to 64 is expected to decrease from last year to a peak of 73.4% in 2016.

If the population cliff phenomenon occurs, economic activity such as production and consumption will be shaken and a serious economic crisis could occur. Harry Dent, an American economist who proposed the concept of population cliffs, predicted that Korea would probably experience a recession in the face of a population cliff in 2018.

The number of deaths in the third quarter was 74,600, up 2,900 (4.3%) from the same period last year.

According to the age composition of deaths, the percentage of men aged 85 and over increased by 16.2% for men and 41.0% for women, up 1.3% and 1.8% compared to the same period last year.

The National Statistical Office (NSO) explained that the number of people aged 85 and over has died due to the worst heat wave of last summer.

In the third quarter, the number of births minus the number of deaths was 9,900, a natural increase from 21,900 in the third quarter of last year.

In the third quarter of 2016, the natural increase was 35,500 euros.

There is a decrease in marriage in the background of a decline in birth.

The number of marriages in the third quarter was 53,800, down 3,200 (5.6%) from the same period last year, the lowest since 1981.

The number of divorces reported in the third quarter was 26,400, down 700 cases (2.6%) from last year.

(Yonhap News)