3% growth rate in the US trade war

[이미지출처=AP연합뉴스]

[아시아경제 이지은 기자] As trade wars between the United States and China become reality, the Korean economy, heavily dependent on exports, will inevitably be affected. In particular, the government's goal of 3% growth rate is likely to be at stake.

The United States imposed a 25% tariff on goods from the United States. a value of 34 billion dollars ($ 38 billion) imported from China, as scheduled Tuesday, June 6, thus opening commercial fights.

As soon as tariffs come into effect, the spokesman for the spokesman said: "The United States has violated the rules of the WTO and has unleashed the biggest trade war in the world. # 39; s history. " China has already announced that it would impose similar retaliatory duties and 25 percent tariffs would be imposed on 659 products, including US $ 50 billion of US soybean, corn and wheat in the United States. a near future.

The trade war between the United States and China is unlikely to end easily. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the Brookings Institution China predicts that the US-China trade war would last at least until next year.

If the trade war goes on, the Korean economy will be hit hard. DBS Bank, chief economist of DBS Bank, said Thursday that Korea's growth rate has dropped by 0.4 percentage points from the previous year (2.9 %) at 2.5%, "He said.

Pixet Asset Management rated Korea as the sixth largest risk in the world in terms of the impact of the US-China trade war on exports. Reuters also reported that Korea, Taiwan, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Singapore, He was designated as the main country victim. The Hyundai Economic Research Institute predicts that if the US and Chinese trade wars spread worldwide, and the average global rate rose from 4.8% to 10%, Korea's economic growth would drop by 0.6%.

The KOSDAQ index rose 1.18 points (0.15%) to 795.23.

The economy of Korea has been sluggish in terms of its size. employment and investment, despite the controversy over the economic slowdown, despite strong exports of high level exports. The increase in the number of employed workers remained at 100,000 between February and April and dropped to 70,000 in May. This is the smallest increase in eight years and four months since January 2010. Investment in facilities and retail sales declined for three months and two months, respectively. [19659000] Business Survey Index (BSI), a measure of stock sentiment fell to 80 last month. Exports in the first half of the year rose 6.6% to $ 297.5 billion and exports exceeded $ 50 billion for the fourth consecutive month.

In this situation, if the export, which dominated the growth rate, is affected, it is also a realization factor of the growth rate target of 3%. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the Bank of Korea, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Korea Institute of Industrial Economics and Commerce (KIER) provide that the growth rate of Korea will be 3% The Bank of Korea (ANZ) expects the rate to be 2.7%, while the economic outlook is mixed.

Reporter Lee Ji Eun [email protected]