Last year, China was marked by a long history of trade … Unexpected decline in exports and imports in December – Chosun.com

Entry 2019.01.14 18:02

Report on China's trade for the first year of the US-China trade war
Last year's imports exceeded $ 2 trillion … December's imports posted the biggest drop since July 2016
The US trade surplus reached $ 323.3 billion "Victory of the trade war" Trump Confusion
South Korea's trade surplus with China was 95.8 billion dollars … trade with North Korea

China's trade report, which sparked the trade war with the United States last year, was released. China is expected to become the world's largest trading nation for the second year in a row, recording the largest volume of trade ever recorded last year. However, it was observed that trade disputes between the US and China would intensify with the US trade surplus for the second year in a row.

In addition, last December, exports and imports both broke expectations and reduced the outlook for the Chinese economy. South Korea has the largest trade surplus ever recorded with China.

According to last year 's import and export statistics released by the Chinese Customs Administration (KCS) on April 14, the commercial value of it has risen. at $ 4.62 billion last year. This is the largest increase of all time, 12.6% more than the previous year. Imports also rose 15.8% to over $ 2 trillion for the first time on an annual basis. The trade surplus fell 16.2% to $ 351.8 billion for the fourth year in a row. This is the lowest level in five years since 2013 ($ 258.8 billion). He supports the statement of the Chinese authorities that they are not seeking a trade surplus.

Trade statistics released that day appear to spill over favorable indicators for the Chinese economy. Xinhua's official correspondent and the private media, the groom's finance minister, have defined the "best business value of all time". A spokesman for the General Administration of Culture and Tourism, Liu Bei Wen, also stressed this issue during the press conference.

"China's trade volume exceeded 10 trillion yuan in 2005, exceeding 20 trillion yuan in 2010 and exceeding 30 trillion yuan in 2018," Lee said. And 2.7 trillion yuan (9.7%) more than in 2017. "

Lee said: "Foreign trade has remained calm and stable in response to the severe changes in the external environment, and stability has increased," he said. China maintained its leading position in global trade for three years starting in 2013, but returned to the US in 2016 with a total of US $ 20.4 billion in 2016.

However, if we take a closer look at the export and import indicators announced today, we will confirm the shadow and the conflict surrounding the Chinese economy.

Chinese exports decreased by 4.4% and imports by 7.6%.

China's exports and imports fell in December last year, not meeting expectations of increase. In December, exports and imports fell by 4.4% and 7.6% respectively. December trade volume also decreased by 5.8%.

Monthly exports to China declined in the first nine months of March last year, the largest decline since December 2016. Experts who responded to the Reuters poll said Chinese exports in December should slow down from 3.0% in November to 5.4% in November, but that they should not decrease.

Lee said: "The export growth rate of 397 products last September and 1172 products in November was higher than the export growth rate of 7.1% recorded last year." Exports rose 13.3% in November and December, up from 7.1% a month ago. However, the government's export stimulus measures indicate that China's overall growth rate of exports has not stopped abruptly.

The decline in imports was 7.6% last December, the highest level since July 2016. The market recorded a surge in import growth from 3.0% in the previous month to 5% in December.

"The slowdown in Chinese export growth is due to slower global economic growth and the growing impact of US tariffs," said Capital Economics.

Chinese exports rose at a double-digit rate in September and last October, when the trade war between the United States and China began in earnest, but it was pointed out that "export exports" had reached the limit because of a rate of 27%. At that time, China had a base effect, also due to the slowdown in trade growth in 4Q09. Indeed, this figure was high in the fourth quarter of 2017.

♢ Imports from China have risen sharply … Warning … cosmetics have increased by 67.5%

Capital economists say that the sharp decline in Chinese imports in December indicates that the Chinese economy is facing a cooling of domestic demand. Recently, Apple has been "blaming China" for its prospects of deteriorating iPhone sales, and price cuts focused on online shopping malls in China show that domestic demand in China is worse than expected.

The growth rate of PPI in China slowed to stand at 0.9% in December, its lowest level since September 2016, and the manufacturing price index for China. December (PMI) rose 49.4%, down from 50%. It is also linked to the economic contraction phase in two years from January.

China's trade surplus in December fell sharply, with the monthly trade surplus surging 36.3 percent from the previous month to $ 57 billion. However, the increase in tariff reductions imports seems to be an opportunity for foreign companies. Last year, cosmetics imports grew by 67.5%, reaching 65.7 billion yuan, and fishery products imports, by 39.9%, to reach 79.4 billion yuan. yuan.

Trade with China through e-commerce is also growing strongly. Last year, e-commerce (retail) at the border rose to 13.47 billion yuan, an increase of 50% over the previous year. Exports were 56.112 billion yuan, up 67 percent, while imports (fasting overseas) rose 39.8 percent to 78.58 billion yuan.

Indicators of the US-China trade war

China's trade surplus with the United States rose 17.2% last year, reaching $ 323.3 billion. This is a record for the second year in a row since the inauguration of President Donald Trump. It is unfortunate that President Trump boasted of "winning" in a trade war with China.

"The expansion of China's trade surplus with the United States shows that the two countries complement each other at different stages of development," a spokesman said.

China's largest trade surplus with the United States was the 11.3% increase in its exports to the United States, while its imports grew by 0.7%. China's trade with the United States grew 8.5% to $ 6335.3 billion. It is 4.1% lower than the overall growth rate of Chinese trade (12.6%) last year.

The trade surplus with the United States rose to $ 29.8 billion last December, up from $ 35.5 billion, but the news of the year's record is expected to have an impact bilateral trade negotiations. Both countries are negotiating with a deadline of March 1st.

The Chinese government also admits that the conflict between the United States and China is a major threat to trade this year. "The biggest threat to China's foreign trade development this year is that there are relatively complicated, rigid, uncertain and unstable factors in the external environment," Lee said. "Protectionism and unilateralism in some countries (United States) Concerns about slowing global trade and investment."

The mayor pointed to the worst that the Chinese government wants to highlight. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.56%, the Shenzhen Composite Index 0.77% and the Start Index 1.05%.

Monday at noon, the State Exchange Administration announced that it would increase the limit of QFII, which is one of the channels of foreign investors for capital inflows on the stock market Chinese, from $ 150 billion to $ 300 billion. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.71% to close at 2,535.77. International oil prices have also fallen by more than 1 percent, amid concerns over slowing economic prospects for Chinese imports and exports, Chinese media reported. Reuters reported last week that China's economic growth rate is estimated at 6.6%, its lowest level in 28 years.

최고 Best trade surplus in Korea

China 's trade deficit with Korea last year was $ 95.8 billion, up 28.2% from the previous year. This is the record of 2013 (91.9 billion USD). Korea has achieved the best trade surplus in its history with China. Korea was also the largest importer of China last year.

China's exports and imports to South Korea increased by 5.9% and 15.3% respectively, less than China's total exports (9.9%) and imports (15.8%). .

China said that its trade with North Korea last year was 1.59 billion yuan, down 52.4%. Exports fell 33.3 percent to 14.77 billion RMB and imports 1.4 billion RMB to 88 percent. North Korea's trade surplus rose 29.9% over the previous year to 13.26 billion yuan, due to the decline in imports. "In North and South China trade, China fully, accurately, seriously and strictly applies the resolution of the Security Council."

Last year, trade with China's individual roads (land route and silk road) reached 8.37 billion yuan, an increase of 13.3%. It was 3.6% higher than the growth rate of total trade in yuan, by 9.7%. "The growth rate of trade between Africa and Latin America is 6.7% higher than the average and 6% higher," Lee said. In particular, imports and exports to Russia, Saudi Arabia and Greece increased by 24%, 23.2% and 33% respectively.

최고 Best natural gas imports ∙ First decrease in soybean imports in 7 years

China's soybean imports fell 7.9 percent last year to 8,830,000 tons. This was the first drop in seven years of Chinese soybean imports, mainly because of the effects of the trade war, including tariffs on US soybeans. In December, soybean imports reached 5,720,000 tonnes, down 40% from the same period last year. Imports of iron ore fell 1% to 10.6 billion tonnes.

Crude oil imports rose 31.9% to 90.4 million tonnes, the highest level ever recorded. Demand is increasing, for example, by rapidly replacing coal-fired heating materials with gas to prevent smog deterioration. The volume of imports of the three main solid wastes, including plastic waste, plastic waste, etc., also decreased by 43.4% to reach 22.42 million tonnes.

Crude oil exports are expected to decrease by 46%, while imports are expected to increase by 10.1%. Fresh fruits and nuts increased by 25.2% and 34.9% respectively in terms of yield and quantity.

Semiconductor imports increased by 10.8%, but LCD screens decreased by 10.8%. This is due to the fact that national companies have manufactured many liquid crystal panels. Exports of LCD screens of private companies in China increased by 34.1%. Auto exports rose 17.6% to 1.126 million units, while imports fell to 813,000 units, down 8.4%. The China Automobile Manufacturers' Association announced that automobile sales totaled 280.8 million last year, the first decline in 28 years since 1990. According to the badociation's standards, exports in 2004 reached 1.04 million units, its highest level since 2012.