Entry into the bearish stock market … "It seems to be weak until the end of the year at least"

KOSPI 2063, the lowest of the year … Perspective of five heads of research centers

The impact of "black Thursday" on the US stock market once again engulfed the Korean stock market in two weeks. The KOSPI, which fell 12% this month, experienced a steady decline without brakes, replacing the lowest point for three consecutive days.

KOSPI entered a "bear market" in its own right as it plunged more than 20% from its January 2 peak of 2,607,109 (based on market value). If the stock market falls by more than 10% from the top, it will be clbadified in the category "mediation room" and if it exceeds 20%, it will be clbadified in the category "weak market".

National securities company executives, who responded to the 25 August Dong-A Ilbo survey, predicted the bear market will continue until the end of the year and the first half of the year. Next year (January to June). Some center leaders have predicted that the KOSPI 2000 line could collapse during the year. It is also pessimistic that the bottom of the stock market can be lowered due to the overlap of domestic and foreign bad news, notably by strengthening trade disputes in the United States and slowing the profits of domestic companies.

○ "Ant", a soldier exhausted by horror,

Ants (individual investors) were tortured with foreigners who sued the "Korea Cell". This month, individual investors bought more than 2.7 trillion won, sold more than 3 trillion won and received the number of foreigners left. However, when technology stocks dropped on 24 (US) on the 24th, ants were also involved in the dueling process. The technology-focused Nasdaq has lost 4.43% of its earnings concerns and has fallen as much as seven years since August 2011. Yoon Hee-deo, director of Korea Investment & Securities, said: "The Korean stock market, which has a high proportion of information technology (IT) shares such as semiconductors,

Experts worry about the global economic downturn. Three out of five interviewees predicted that the KOSPI 2000 line could collapse by the end of the year. Shin Dong-suk, director of Samsung Securities, said: "The value of KOSPI's net badets (PBR) was 0.76 at the time of the 2008 global financial crisis.

Domestic economic conditions to support the collapse of the stock market are not enough. Yoon Ji-ho, head of the Center for Research on Best Investment in Securities, said: "We missed the rate hike and we can not expect the economic stimulus effect." "If the US and China slow down next year, the export market will be affected," said Kyungsu Lee, director of the Meritz Securities Research Center. "Despite weak domestic demand, it's not a good problem," he said.

○ "When you increase your holdings"

In the end, experts say that the response to the stock market rebound depends on the timing of the US-China trade conflict. "The mid-term US elections and the December FOMC will become points of inflection," said Yoon Hee-do, director of the center. "If external uncertainties are resolved, the stock market may seek a rebound." Yun Ji-ho, center manager, said: "In the first half of next year, we will be able to find some sense of investment,

The upward trend of the US stock market is not over yet. We can see the expectations of a rebound. Noh Geun-chang, director of Hyundai Securities Co., said: "The momentum of US technology growth is still relevant, so the stock market will recover if the trade dispute calms down."

The experts urged not to make any unusual redemptions. Many suggestions have been made to increase cash holdings and focus on risk management for now. "It is beneficial now to reduce the weight of equities and increase the proportion of cash," said the center's chief. "We have to wait until mid-second half of next year".

Sungmin Park [email protected] …