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Although the Korean semiconductor industry has experienced tremendous growth, there is growing concern about China's rapid pursuit. Employees check the equipment of Samsung Electronics' Kiheung semiconductor factory. [사진 삼성전자]
The export engine that has supported the Korean economy is cooling down. According to the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy (MOCIE), on January 1, exports fell by 0.09 percent year-on-year to 5.13 billion US dollars last month . Exports, which had continued to rise for the seventeenth consecutive month until March of this year, declined in April, before rebounding in May, before falling again in one month.
However, for the very first time, the amount itself has set a record $ 50 billion export for four consecutive months. The trade surplus also remained in the dark for 77 consecutive months with $ 6.32 billion. A ministry official said: "Due to local elections, the number of working days has decreased by 1.5 days and the base effect of exports of large vessels ($ 7.37 billion) in June last was badigned. "
The government estimates that export growth is not interrupted. However, the fragility of the export structure due to the collapse of semiconductors and major lazy industries such as automobiles, home appliances and screens has not disappeared.
The six items exported declined last month: automobile, steel, display, wireless communication device, appliance and ship. Automobiles have declined for five consecutive months since February. Once upon a time the advantage of Korean cars "relatively cheap and high performance" was the main reason for price competition with Japanese cars.
The first six export industries of South Korea
Display Equipment wireless communication and home appliances, Market share is losing.
Exports increased in seven sectors: semiconductors, general machinery, petrochemicals, petroleum products, auto parts, textiles and computers. There is much badysis that the competitiveness of our company does not improve, but it is a virtue that it has benefited from the boom in the world. related economy and rising international oil prices.
In contrast, semiconductor exports increased 39% year-over-year to $ 11.16 billion. The share of total exports is 21.8%. The problem is that demand should slow down in 2H. The Korea International Trade Association (KITA) expects semi-conductor exports to grow 16.6 percent in the second half of the year, up from 41.8 percent in the first half of the year. Industrial research institutes also have similar prospects (42.5% → 15.9%). Exports of semiconductors, which reached 69.9% last September, have fallen to 30% this year.
Kwon Tae-shin, director of the Korea Institute of Economic Research, said: "Given the high dependence on semiconductors, there is concern that if the semiconductor market drops, Korean exports be affected ". And in emerging markets, they are in a sandwich situation pursued by Chinese companies. "
This is not the only factor." The Korea International Trade Association (KITA) expects exports to grow by 5.5 percent this year, compared to 6.4 percent in the first half of the year. , 6% in the second half.It is a third of the growth rate of exports (15.8%) last year.In the advanced index of exports of KOTRA, the index price competitiveness has dropped for 9 consecutive quarters.According to a study by the Korean Institute of Economic Research, exports are expected to be weak this month.
The world's protecting countries are in the world. The products that the main countries call protective trade items are steel, automobile and semiconductor.This means that the possibility that Korea 's exports reach the pomegranate is so great.
If exports are lethargic, it could be difficult to reach create an economic growth rate of 3%. The economic growth rate in the first quarter of this year was 1.1%, thanks to favorable exports and a favorable investment in facilities and construction. The Korea International Trade Association (KITA) estimated that Korea's exports contributed to 2.0% of its economic growth rate of 3.1%. last year. The number of jobs induced by exports rose to 4,470,000, or 400,000 more than in 2016, the highest number ever recorded.
Professor Seung Tae Yoon, professor of economics at Yonsei University, said, "Korea's economic structure has an overall impact on economic growth, income growth, economic growth and economic growth. employment and private consumption. "We must put the export engine back on track."
Sejong = Sonhae Yong and reporter Changwon Seok [email protected]
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