"When the interest rate rises … When the price of real estate drops, the Gyeongbuk emergency lamp"> Economy> News

An increase in interest rates could lead to an increased possibility of reducing household debt in Jeollanam-do. Gyeongbuk has turned out to be an area where the vulnerability of household debt could become significant when the real estate market has cooled down.

In a report titled "Current Situation and Consequences of Household Financial Stability in the Region", Yoon Bum-joon, a researcher at Hyundai, and a researcher at the Hyundai Institute of Economic Research said: "The rise in Interest rates in Jeollanam province and falling real estate prices in Gyeongbuk province could increase the risk of household over-indebtedness. " . The researchers estimated this based on the 2016 financial panel of the Korea Institute of Public Finance.

While the interest rate on loans rose 1 percentage point from 2016, the average household debt repayment ratio rose from 13.3 percent to 14.4 percent. Among them, Gyeongbuk (+ 1.7%), Incheon (+ 1.6%), Daegu (+ 1.3%), economy (+ 1.2%) and Jeonnam (+ 1.2%). However, the DSR in Gyeongbuk, Daegu and Incheon is below the national average.

Although interest rates were rising, the DSR was below the national average. In addition, Jeonnam holds 35.4% of the RSD, the highest in the country, and 36.4% when the interest rate increases.

Assuming a 5 percentage point drop in real estate prices, the household debt ratio at the national level increases by 1.3 percentage points, from 31.3% to 32.6%.

In particular, Gyeongbuk DTA (+ 1.8%), Incheon (+ 1.6%), Gyeonggi (+ 1.5%), Ulsan (+ 1.4%) The rise was significant.

The most vulnerable was Gyeongbuk. Gyeongbuk's CDI is currently the highest in the country at 39.1%. When the price of real estate fell, the DTA climbed to 40.9% and it was the only national surplus of more than 40%.

In Seoul, DSR rose to 10.6%, making it the sixth largest city in the country with 15 cities (with the exception of Jeju and Sejong). If interest rates increase by 1 percentage point, they will rise to 11.6%, but the level or increase of the RSP is estimated to be lower than the national average.

In the case of DTA, Seoul ranked 13th with 26.0%. If the price of real estate fell by 5%, the DTA increased from 1% to 27.0%. The DTA level in Seoul and its rise were all below the national average.

However, the Seoul DSR and DTA may be underestimated. Seoul property prices have risen since 2016, but badysts' data do not reflect them.

The researchers found that the financial health of households is generally good, but that it is deteriorating recently. He also pointed out that financial strength could deteriorate due to rising interest rates and falling real estate prices.

In order to curb the excessive increase in household debt, it is necessary to control the housing supply market, strengthen the regulation of mortgages and collectives and suppress speculative demand. .