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Some of California’s largest counties are now closer to a broader economic reopening than they have been in months, with only a handful of COVID-19 vaccines strategically deployed between them and the ability to resume meals on site and to welcome additional students for the -learning camp.
According to new state data released on Tuesday, Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino counties have recorded rates of coronavirus cases low enough to allow them to escape the more stringent level, or purple, of the California’s four-tier reopening roadmap. However, when they officially land in a less restrictive category depends on how quickly the vaccine can be given to residents of certain disadvantaged areas.
The magic number of doses is 2 million. After California administered so many vaccinations to low-income people communities, the state will relax the criteria, which, along with the lower rates, will allow those counties to move from the purple level to the most permissive red level. The state’s goal is to administer more doses to areas fall into the lowest quartile of the California Healthy Places Index, a socio-economic measurement tool.
Currently, counties must have an adjusted rate of 7.0 new coronavirus cases per day per 100,000 population or less to go red. Once the state hits its target of 2 million doses, which will likely happen this week, counties with a case rate of up to 10 new cases per day per 100,000 people would become eligible for the red level.
As part of this effort to address inequalities in vaccine delivery, California now devotes 40% of its available supplies to residents of the most disadvantaged areas.
This changed threshold allows California counties to lift the tightest coronavirus restrictions on businesses and public spaces more quickly.
Under existing criteria, none of the counties in LA, Orange or San Bernardino would be able to go from the purple level this week.
However, as all three have seen adjusted case rates of less than 10 new cases per day per 100,000 people over the past two weeks, it looks like they will be allowed to move soon after the state has crossed over. its obstacle to vaccination.
“We understand that within 48 hours of the state announcing the vaccine trigger, LA County, as well as other counties with eligible case rates, would drop to the red level,” said the County LA County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer. Supervisory Board Tuesday.
California is about 103,000 doses less to meet its target, according to the state’s latest data available.
The most recently published average coronavirus case rates, which are adjusted based on the number of tests performed, were 5.2 in Los Angeles, 6.0 in Orange County and 6.7 in San Bernardino.
A month ago, calculated case rates were 31.7 in Los Angeles County, 29.7 in Orange County and 32.7 in San Bernardino County.
Other areas of Southern California have seen similarly steep declines and are also approaching a potential red-level crossing. The latest adjusted case rates calculated by the state were 8.3 for Riverside County, 8.8 for San Diego County, 9.7 for Santa Barbara County, and 9.1 for Ventura County .
However, all of those counties would have to register case rates below 10 for an additional week to be eligible for an advance under the state’s relaxed criteria.
While Red Level is California’s second toughest reopening plan, reaching this category still offers much broader opportunities for business resumption and other activities.
Red-level counties may allow indoor dining and cinema halls to reopen at 25% capacity or up to 100 people, whichever is less. In-person lessons would also be allowed to resume for students in Grades 7 to 12.
Indoor gymnasiums and dance and yoga studios can open at 10% capacity. Museums, zoos and aquariums can open indoor activities at 25% of capacity, and non-essential stores and libraries can open at 50% of capacity, up from 25%.
State officials also announced last week that amusement parks would be eligible to reopen, with restrictions, in red-level counties from April 1 – meaning long-closed attractions like Disneyland , Universal Studios, Knott’s Berry Farm and Six Flags Magic Mountain in Southern California could be weeks away from welcoming visitors again.
Capacity will be limited to 15% for parks in counties that are in the red level, with the cap increasing to 25% once a county turns orange and 35% when it reaches the most lenient level, yellow. Participation will be limited to visitors from the State.
However, state rules only serve as a reference. Counties have the power to impose additional restrictions – meaning it is not a given that an area will reopen immediately after meeting state requirements.
In LA County, for example, Ferrer said that “we are looking closely at the science to understand what practices help reduce community transmission of COVID-19.”
Everyone, she said, must remain “extremely careful, because we’ve been here before” – apparently taking a hopeful path to see the coronavirus rebound with fierce intensity.
“Let’s not get back into a risky situation that once again puts our progress on hold,” she said. “But more importantly, now is a real time to keep yourself alive so that everyone gets vaccinated.”
It remains to be seen whether Los Angeles can choose to suspend certain activities – such as eating indoors – but some county officials have said they believe the region would do well to follow state guidelines.
“To be different from that now, I think it would cause confusion and probably a lot of anger because there are so many places out there, entities that have really suffered,” Supervisor Janice Hahn said Tuesday.
Supervisor Kathryn Barger said she was concerned that having a patchwork of different rules could encourage “travel from county to county to participate in different activities.”
“I hope we will be able to align with state rules so that our residents can see the way forward, our businesses are not at a disadvantage,” she said.
Even without changing the level thresholds, nine counties were allowed to fall into a less restrictive category this week.
Six – Alameda, Butte, Calaveras, Imperial, Santa Cruz and Solano – went from purple level to red level.
Mariposa and Plumas counties moved from the red level to the next orange level, while Alpine County became the sole occupant of the yellow level.
The progression of counties from one level to the next matches the continued emergence of California after its devastating wave of fall and winter coronaviruses.
Over the past week, California reported an average of 4,270 new coronavirus cases per day, a 37% decrease from two weeks ago, according to data compiled by The Times.
“We’ve gone back to the daily case counts which are now what we call our pre-flare levels, and that’s great news,” Ferrer said. “But it’s extremely important to remember that continued declines are not inevitable.”
The number of coronavirus-positive patients in California hospitals also fell, reaching 3,766 on Sunday, including 1,065 in intensive care units.
These two figures are the lowest since mid-November.
In addition to the impending achievable 2 million dose threshold, state officials have set an additional goal of administering a total of 4 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine to residents of targeted communities.
Once that happens, the state will further rewrite its plan to reopen to make it easier for counties to enter the orange and yellow levels.
The threshold for going orange would drop from a requirement of less than 4.0 new cases per day per 100,000 residents to less than 6.0. Entering the yellow level would require an adjusted case rate of less than 2.0 new cases per day per 100,000 population, compared to the current requirement of less than 1.0.
It is not known how long it will take to reach the 4 million dose mark. Over the past week, providers across California administered an average of 203,566 doses per day statewide, according to data from The Times.
Gov. Gavin Newsom said Monday the state is seeing “more and more progress every day as we reopen our economy and reopen our schools safely for in-person public education.”
“The light is really bright at the end of this tunnel,” he said at a briefing in Tulare County.
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