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Tony Rizk – Republic
Investors follow the US business cycle to extrapolate the signs of a possible recession after nine years of growth. Who will fall on the global stock markets.
The sharp fluctuations in global financial markets are not just due to trade disputes and disputes between the US and China, the European Union and other countries, but still risks bigger must be taken into account, That the current US business cycle is late, which begs the question of how long can it continue before the recession and collapse?
Concerns and worries about the US market affect investors in different parts of the world, especially in Asian countries, because the US economy is too big and intertwined to drag the global economy into recession since the Second World War.
Nearly nine years have pbaded since the beginning of this US economic growth, making it the country's second record, and fear and anxiety begin to come true: when the United States sneezes, the rest of the world is getting cold.
Although China has an economy strong enough to be influential and close to America, it is the second most powerful economy in the world, but China has never experienced a real economic recession and can not be sure of being able to cope with it.
True, there is a close connection between recession and trade concerns: as the economy grows in a country, the economy becomes more vulnerable to the serious consequences of rising rates of interest, business expansion and consumption. It is possible that the current trade war is one of these possible consequences, but with the US economy and with it in a global recession, the current tensions must become much more important than they do it. are currently.
In the last 50 years in the United States, the profits of the previous year have exceeded 20% and not less than 10%, and when the onset of the bear market approaches, it is very rare that the shares fall overnight. It is time to leave the market, and it is not necessary to try to predict the time of landing.
Currency Markets
The euro appreciated against the dollar, but this move was limited by the reluctance of many investors because of lingering worries before the deadline for Washington to impose tariffs on imports from China.
The yuan recorded the strongest advance, up 0.8%, as the Chinese currency returned to its lowest level in 11 months after the central bank took steps to halt its rapid decline.
The euro rose 0.1% to $ 1.1665. The dollar fell 0.2% against a basket of six major currencies to reach 94.505 before the US Independence Holiday, after winning for three consecutive months. The Japanese yen, a safe haven, rose 0.2% against the US dollar to 110.39 yen to the dollar.
The Australian dollar climbed to $ 0.7403, far from the 18-month low of $ 0.7311, thanks to solid domestic sales data.
Beirut Stock Exchange
The activity of the local stock market fell yesterday in the middle of the dominance of the upward trend of the stock prices traded, which amounted to 39810128973 shares of a worth $ 0.31 million. Through 31 sales and buy for six types of shares, which increased the price of three shares, including the stock decline and stabilized two other shares. In conclusion, the market value gained 0.21% to reach $ 10.356 billion. The most active shares were: [19659003] 1) BLOM Bank Certificates, which was $ 10.50 with 14,500 shares
2) Solidere A shares increased 0.27% to $ 7.17 with 13,550 shares
. 3) The shares of Bank Audi, which fell from 1.96% to $ 5 with the exchange of 7500 shares. [4] The shares of Bloom Bank, which stood at $ 10.45 with the exchange of 2000.
5) Byblos Bank certificates increased by 5.71% $ 1.48 with the exchange of 2000 shares ".
Global Equity
European stocks advanced early trading on Tuesday after Merkel's conservatives locked themselves into a migratory conflict, supporting investors worried that a US-led trade war could derail global growth. At 7:36 GMT, the European Stoxx 600 index rose 0.2%, while the German DAX posted the best performance, up 0.6%. A dispute over immigration has threatened to squeeze out Merkel's fragile coalition government, but a breakthrough occurred Monday night after his rebel Interior Minister resigned his threat of resignation.
Asian stocks, which continued their steep decline late Monday in China, have offset some of their losses before European stock exchanges, helping to restore confidence.
Chinese financial markets are worried before the July 6 deadline imposing a US $ 34 billion charge on Chinese products, which Beijing has threatened to retaliate with similar rights over US products [19659016] Oil prices rose after a report of a decline in fuel stocks in the United States with the suspension of Cinecrode Canada's Alberta oil sands plant, usually delivered to the United States. United. Oil prices have also been supported by US sanctions against Iran, which prevent cutting the supply of an already scarce market despite the commitment of the Organization of the Countries Oil exporters (OPEC) to increase production to offset supply shortages.
US WTI futures increased by 37 cents or 0.4%, compared with the previous agreement, to $ 74.51 per barrel. Crude hits Tuesday its highest level since November 2014 at $ 75.27 a barrel.
Brent crude reached $ 78.04 per barrel, up 28 cents or 0.4% from the previous settlement. The trading activity was limited due to the independence day in the United States.
Gold
Gold hit its one-week high on Wednesday recovering from the seven-month low reached in the previous session as the dollar, which boosted demand for the yellow metal, dropped.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $ 1260.06 the ounce, after peaking at a weekly high of $ 1261.10 an ounce.
The yellow metal rose more than $ 20 from Tuesday 's low of $ 1237.32 an ounce, its lowest since December 12.
Gold futures for delivery in August rose 0.6% to $ 1261.30 an ounce. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.3% to 94,421
and gold finds support in the dollar's decline as it reduces the cost of US metal to investors in other currencies.
Gold is often considered a safe haven in times of political and financial uncertainty.
Among the other precious metals, spot silver rose 0.7% to $ 16.13 an ounce, and palladium rose more than 1% to $ 950.80 l & # 39; ounce.
Platinum rose 0.1% to $ 837.74 an ounce, after falling to its lowest level since December 2008 at $ 793 an ounce. US markets remained closed on Wednesday for the Independence Holiday
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