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Life expectancy in the United States has just fallen by more than a year – the biggest drop in decades – due to the sheer number of deaths from COVID-19, a new study estimates.
Study researchers predict that due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the average life expectancy in the United States in 2020 will decrease by 1.13 years, taking it to 77.48 years, according to the study , published Thursday, January 14 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. It’s the biggest one-year drop in life expectancy in at least 40 years, and it would bring the country’s life expectancy back to its lowest level since 2003, the researchers said.
Life expectancy in the United States rarely drops, and when it does, it makes the headlines. More recently, Life expectancy in the United States has declined by 0.1 years in 2015, 2016 and 2017 – a trend that has been attributed to an increase in “deaths from desperation”, including drug overdoses and suicide. The new estimated drop due to COVID-19 is 10 times larger.
Related: 10 ways COVID-19 has changed the world
In addition, the study showed even larger declines in 2020 among black and Latin communities, which were particularly affected by the pandemic. Overall, nearly 400,000 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 in the United States, according to the Johns Hopkins virus dashboard.
The study predicts that the life expectancy of blacks will decline by 2.1 years, to 72.78 years, and that of Latinos, by 3.05 years, to 78.77 years. In contrast, the life expectancy of whites is expected to drop 0.68 years to 77.84 years.
“Our study analyzes the effect of this exceptional number of deaths on the life expectancy of the entire nation, as well as its consequences for marginalized groups”, explains Theresa Andrasfay, co-author of the study, postdoctoral fellow at the ‘University of Southern California, said in a press release. “The disproportionate effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the life expectancy of blacks and Latin Americans is likely related to their greater exposure through their workplace or extended family contacts, in addition to receiving care from poorer health, leading to more infections and worse outcomes.
Researchers estimated life expectancy at birth in the United States using four scenarios – one in which the COVID-19 pandemic did not occur and three scenarios using the COVID-19 death projections for 2020 from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
The larger reductions in life expectancy for black and Latin American populations were in part due to “a disproportionate number of deaths at younger ages for these groups,” said Noreen Goldman, co-author of the study. , professor of demography and public affairs at Princeton University. the statement. “These results underscore the need for protective behaviors and programs to reduce potential viral exposure in youth who do not perceive themselves to be at high risk.
It is important to note that life expectancy at birth is an estimate of the lifespan of a population of people if they were to know the mortality rates observed over a given period (in this case, in 2020), the authors said.
Although Vaccines against covid-19 could significantly reduce transmission this year, researchers do not predict that life expectancy will rebound immediately in 2021.
“While the arrival of effective vaccines is encouraging, the United States is currently experiencing more daily deaths from COVID-19 than at any other time in the pandemic,” Andrasfay said. “For this reason, and because we predict that there will be long-term health and economic effects that could lead to more severe mortality for many years to come, we predict that there will be persisting on life expectancy in 2021. “
Originally posted on Live Science.
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