Louisiana Goes Against Latest Coronavirus Trends As New Wave Hits Us; experts still “very worried” | Coronavirus

The United States is again in the midst of a record-breaking coronavirus wave, its third of the year, with outbreaks in the Midwest pushing the nation’s daily number of new cases above 120,000.

But Louisiana seems to be going against the trend. At least for now.

There are no firm theories as to why Louisiana, the only state where cases rose along with national numbers in the spring and summer, saw only a slow increase this time around. Adherence to mask-wearing and social distancing guidelines, as well as still warm fall temperatures in the state, could be factors. Separately, some fear that slight increases in new cases and hospitalizations portend the state is heading for another outbreak, masked by a reduction in testing.

Whether Louisiana’s relatively stable situation is real or miraculous, experts advise residents to continue to take precautions.

“You have to remember that there are hundreds of cases happening every day in Louisiana. There is always a risk that you will become complacent and the percentage of positivity will start to increase and have increased transmission again, ”said Dr. Amesh Adalja, senior researcher at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Baltimore.

The United States recorded nearly 133,000 new cases of the coronavirus on Friday, the third day in a row it had set a new record since the pandemic began in the spring. The country also marked the fourth consecutive day of 1,000 deaths, the most fatal period since the end of August. The latest outbreak has pushed 27 states above their previous seven-day records, according to the New York Times.

But things have remained relatively stable in Louisiana. While the 4,438 new cases added to the state’s total over the past week represent the largest increase since mid-September, it is only a 12% increase from the daily average state over the past two months.

“In comparison, we look really good, but that still concerns me a lot because people from all over the state tell me that wearing the mask is really hit and miss and that gatherings happen and extracurricular activities are happening. associated with schools, ”said Susan Hassig, epidemiologist at Tulane University. “All of these things are causing clusters of cases, and people are apparently less eager to be tested.”

While the condition as a whole does not look particularly worse than it has been in recent months, there are some areas of concern. The area around Shreveport, which has never seen its number drop as much as other areas of the state, has seen the number of cases rise rapidly – its seven-day total rising to more than 1,000 cases, an increase more than 40% compared to the last. the week.

The Lafayette area has seen even more dramatic increases, with cases nearly doubling last week. However, its overall count of 640 cases over 7 days remains relatively low.

In New Orleans, Tulane University President Michael Fitts emailed students and employees on Friday, saying the school was adding new restrictions and testing requirements after seeing an increase in cases attributed by officials to Hurricane Zeta and Halloween celebrations. The school reported 214 positive cases last week, a sharp increase after weeks in which the number of new cases never reached double digits.

Louisiana Department of Health spokesman Kevin Litten said in a statement that officials continue to monitor the situation closely and have been particularly troubled by the increase in the percentage of positivity in the northeast. Louisiana and the epidemics at 42 religious events that resulted in 225 new cases. The ministry is also concerned that people are letting their guard down and not taking precautions in small settings with friends or family.

“It is human behavior to subconsciously think that your friends and relatives have not been exposed to the virus,” Litten said. “But that is of course not true. It is important that we keep this in mind as we enter the holiday season. It does not mean that we cannot spend time with our loved ones; it means just that we have to get a little creative. we can all stay safe. “

A hike in Louisiana has been widely expected since mid-September, when Gov. John Bel Edwards announced he was relaxing some restrictions and moving to Phase 3 of the state’s reopening plan. In New Orleans, which has maintained stricter rules than the state throughout the pandemic, Mayor LaToya Cantrell began loosening his restrictions about two weeks later.

In earlier phases of the pandemic, both in Louisiana and around the world, the reduction in restrictions has been accompanied by an increase in the spread of the virus. And in Louisiana, those looser restrictions came alongside the start of in-person learning in schools and colleges, another change that is expected to lead to further spread.

“There’s no explanation,” said Jeff Asher of AH Datalytics, who has tracked the pandemic in the state. “I expected that.”

One explanation Adalja put forward is that the people of Louisiana took the experience of the first two waves of the pandemic to heart. “It makes the population a little more aware of the risks, and a lot of what happens during an epidemic in a given area has to do with the behavior of people,” he said.

The climate could also play a role. Much of the current surge is happening in states where cold weather has already set in, reducing opportunities for outdoor activities considered less likely than indoor gatherings to spread the virus.

This raises concerns about what happens when the weather changes in Louisiana, as does the upcoming holidays that could see families gathering for celebrations, Hassig said.

“It’s not just foreigners. It is those [who] are dear to us and… are in danger and potentially risky for us, ”she said. “Frankly, this is one of the things I thought about: if we have a lot of asymptomatic spread in people under 40, when they reunite with their families – which will include the older generations – it is is where I’m concerned. will see more impact. “

Then there is the possibility that the current coronavirus figures are a mirage. Testing has been halted several times in recent months as Hurricanes Laura, Delta and Zeta swept through the state. Each storm has been accompanied by a drop in testing and the number of new infections reported.

This is on top of a reluctance in parts of the state to get tested in the first place, Hassig said.

Overall, that could mean the virus is still spreading but not showing up in official statistics, she said.

Another explanation, which generated less agreement, is the effect of previous waves on the susceptibility of the Louisiana population. With nearly 187,700 confirmed cases, Louisiana has one of the highest per capita rates in the country and the number of undiagnosed infections could be several times higher than that.

That would be well below the thresholds needed for any type of herd immunity, but it could slow the spread of the disease among people such as essential workers who regularly interact with others, Asher said.

“It might just be that it’s harder to spread here than elsewhere,” he said.

Hassig, however, said she was skeptical that enough people had been infected to affect the potential for transmission of the virus.

“I don’t think that’s enough to substantially change the dynamics,” she said.

Editor’s Note: This story was updated on November 8, 2020 to include a statement from the Louisiana Department of Health.