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Greetings from LAX. CEO Daily gets up late today because I am in transit at Brainstorm Tech in Aspen after a lightning trip through the Middle Kingdom with Alan Murray and other Fortune colleagues. It has been a banner week for Fortune in China. It started with a stop in Guangzhou, on the east coast of China, where we officially announced the dates of the Fortune Global Tech Forum in this city. From November 29th to 30th, write down your calendars!) From there, he went to Yunnan Province on the mountainous border of Southwest China to prepare the Fortune Global Sustainability Forum, a new conference to explore global environmental and energy challenges. 19659002] Usually, I focus on the news in this space. But forgive me if, just for a moment, I'm wearing my best plaid jacket to exalt the meaning of these two new platforms. The Tech Forum, which I will co-chair with Adam Lashinsky, builds on Brainstorm Tech International's spectacular success last year, also in Guangzhou. The theme of the year is "Innovation in the AI era" and we have already confirmed an excellent lineup of speakers including Kaifu – Fu Lee of Sinovation Ventures, Neil Shen of Sequoia Capital China, Jessica Tan from Ping An Insurance Group and many others. (You can sign up for the Tech Forum and check out our new video, on the Fortune Conference page.) The Sustainability Forum will be held in the fall of 2019 in a spectacular location on the shores of Lake Fuxian, the only one of its kind. one of the great ecological treasures of China. (More details on the forum on sustainable development here.)
These two conferences will be recurring annual meetings between senior executives, investors and government leaders from around the world, with high-level Chinese counterparts. Already China's problems occupy an important place in the pages of the magazine Fortune and, as known as the diligent readers of CEO Daily, on the agendas of our established franchises like Brainstorm Tech and the Fortune Global Forum. (For example, in Aspen this week, Adam will interview Richard Liu, founder of China's e-commerce giant JD.com, while I'll be hosting a roundtable on Chinese innovation.) With the addition In fact, no global media company is getting closer to Fortune by offering business leaders around the world unique opportunities to connect with China and get a first-hand insight into developments. in a country that, for better or for worse, a major global challenge.
Which brings us to the news. The trade war between the world's two largest economies is staggering in its third week and both sides are pricing the costs. On Tuesday, the Trump administration introduced tariffs on Chinese products worth $ 200 billion, adding to the $ 34 billion import duty that came into effect on July 6. China promises to fight back in kind. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin acknowledged that trade talks between the two countries had failed: "China has criticized the United States for" acting erratically "and" openly "abandoning consensus on And for good measure, the Commerce Department said that China's monthly trade surplus with the United States has widened in June to reach $ 29 billion, an all-time record. (The peak probably reflects the exporters rushing to beat the July tariffs.)
How long will it last, and which side will suffer the most? The economic adviser of Allianz, Mohammed El-Erian says the United States "wins the trade war" and that they will economically "out-do" the rest of the world when it's over, Jim Cramer, CNBC's value guru, thinks market movements suggest that China has already "blinked" in the confrontation. Christopher Balding, an associate professor at HSBC Business School in Shenzhen, says the prospect of a protracted trade war "is causing growing concern in China," prompting key officials to worry that the ruling party made a significant miscalculation. Yet pessimism prevails. The flash assessment of El-Erian is based on the assumption that titrator retaliation is not going to "degenerate" (what they already seem to do). And the markets have underestimated the risks of this trade war from the start.
Stephen S. Roach, former president of Morgan Stanley Asia and senior member of Yale University, says the United States is on the brink of losing this clash. UBS economists, who previously dismissed the idea that a trade war would cause significant damage to either economy, reversed the trend on Wednesday; they now see the potential for widespread disruption of the supply chain, rising inflation and slowing growth in the United States. Catharine Rampell, columnist for the Washington Post warns that Beijing's next actions could include a propaganda campaign to urge Chinese consumers to boycott US products, tighter environmental inspections, and anti-monopoly rules for US companies. Trump's tariffs, she fret, have "supported China in a corner," and could prompt Chinese leaders to "reduce the very bad behavior that the United States was trying to stop."
More news from China below.
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