Map: What could a measles outbreak in Houston look like?

What would a measles outbreak look like in real time?

A group of pediatricians in Texas asked researchers at the University of Pittsburgh to present a model that shows what could happen to a municipality if the vaccination rate were to decrease by 10%.

Researchers have already developed an agent-based modeling system called the Epidemiological Dynamics Reconstruction Framework (FRED), which shows the worst-case measles scenario in the county or metropolitan area. This model is based on projections.

The Texas model uses real numbers, where simulations deepen to show the risk of infection at each school level.

Click the gallery above to see simulations of a real-time measles outbreak in Houston.

"About a year and a half ago, the Texas branch of the American College of Pediatricians contacted us," said Dr. Mark Roberts, director of the Public Health Dynamics Laboratory at the University of Toronto. Pittsburgh.

"They asked if we could do the simulation with real data."

Roberts said his team also used data from the US Department of Education, which provided the location and size of schools, and the US Department of Commerce, which provided detailed information on the job.

Although the model indicates the maximum number of measles cases that could likely occur, it does not include the effect of public health interventions after the onset of an epidemic, such as mass vaccination programs or increased isolation rates.

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"In simulators, households wake up, then kids go to school and adults to work," Roberts said. "They go from home to school to work, and come and go again and again."

The projections allow you to watch as a measles outbreak spreads among school children and adult workers, Roberts said.

However, the simulation remains very precise, Roberts said.

"It could be said that this is not accurate, but, boy, it's pretty close," Roberts said.

In addition, the researchers created two graphs showing the population divided into two categories.

The first group consists of third parties, including those for whom vaccination has failed (3% of people do not have immunity after vaccination) and those who are not eligible for vaccination for medical reasons.

The second group, called the refusers, includes those who refuse to be vaccinated.

If you choose not to vaccinate your child, it affects all others, including passersby who are not unprotected by choice, noted Roberts.

This demonstrates the importance of a high vaccination rate to protect the community, according to FRED researchers.

Measles, which is highly contagious, has once again become a threat to public health after being largely eradicated in 2000, according to the Houston Chronicle. In Harris County, the Houston Chronicle ranked the ninth most risky county in terms of risk of contracting measles.

To see simulations for Texas and other states, check out the Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics website.

Marcy de Luna is a digital journalist. You can follow her on Twitter @MarcydeLuna and Facebook @MarcydeLuna. Read his stories on our breaking news site, Chron.com, and on our subscriber site, HoustonChronicle.com. | [email protected] | Send CHRONIQUE to 77453 to receive the latest SMS alerts