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“If people had transmission during Thanksgiving week, the median incubation period is around five days, so presumably if people come and get tested… we would start to see an increase in cases around now,” Karan said.
He warned that anyone infected at a holiday gathering could have infected others after returning home, so rates could continue to rise.
“This is what we feared would happen after Thanksgiving,” said Dr. Cassandra M. Pierre, assistant professor of medicine at Boston University School of Medicine and physician at Boston Medical Center, of Wednesday’s dramatic rise. .
“It may still be too early to tell if this is all just Thanksgiving,” she added, “but it certainly matches the accumulated number of indoor gatherings that we know take place.”
After a summer in which it appeared to have the virus under control, Massachusetts experienced a second outbreak. The state has reported thousands of cases every day since November 3. Gov. Charlie Baker has repeatedly urged people to continue to take precautions such as wearing face masks and social distancing as the holidays approach.
At Nantucket Cottage Hospital, 46 new cases of COVID-19 were reported Monday and Tuesday, prompting schools on the island to switch to distance learning for the rest of the week, officials said .
The hospital confirmed the cases in a statement on its website, calling the 46 infections “by far” the highest two-day total since mid-March. A total of 81 new cases have been identified over the past week, with a seven-day positivity rate of 7.6%, the statement said.
The spike prompted island officials on Wednesday to temporarily switch to distance learning for schoolchildren and to cancel all sporting events and school activities for the rest of the week, according to a separate statement from the superintendent of schools. public of Nantucket, Elizabeth Hallett.
Nationally, more than 200,000 new cases of coronavirus were reported on Wednesday, as the chief of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the coming months could be “the most difficult in public health history. of this country ”due to the stress on the country’s health system against the virus.
“The reality is that December, January and February are going to be tough times,” said Dr. Robert Redfield during an event with the United States Chamber of Commerce. “I actually believe this will be the most difficult time in the history of public health in this country.”
Redfield warned that the total number of deaths in the United States could reach 450,000 by February if people do not follow public health recommendations to mitigate the spread of the virus.
Pierre said such advice is essential, but has become a “background noise” that many people ignore, in part because they are tired after more than eight months of following the restrictions.
She said many people underestimate their risk of getting infected because they trust their loved ones, even though they may not know who they have been in contact with.
“I think people are inclined to downgrade the risk they anticipate from friends and family,” she says. “Unfortunately, I continue to see people going to work with cousins, friends, colleagues, without a mask.”
“People really need to understand that if someone isn’t in your household, they have a different risk profile than you do,” she says. “They potentially pose a risk to you; you potentially pose a risk to them. “
Karan said people need to remain vigilant for a relatively short period of time before vaccines are available.
“We’re so close to launching the first vaccines,” he said, later adding, “We’re getting closer to another phase of the pandemic, and I think that alone can be a motivator – that you don’t have to do this forever. This is not something that we have been asking you to do for years. It’s still a big party. “
The Department of Public Health also said on Wednesday that An estimated 45,390 people have active cases of the potentially fatal virus, and 1,259 confirmed coronavirus patients were in hospital.
The public health department also reported that 105,845 additional tests had been carried out for the coronavirus. The total number of tests administered has risen to more than 8.56 million. New antigen tests were performed on 4,292 people, bringing the total to 270,281.
The average seven-day positive test rate, which is calculated from the total number of tests administered, was 4.9%. The lowest observed figure for this metric – a number closely watched by state officials – is 0.8%.
Travis Andersen of Globe staff contributed to this report. Wireline services were also used.
Martin Finucane can be reached at [email protected]. Jeremy C. Fox can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on twitter @jeremycfox.
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