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In a new Bloomberg Markets interview, Ryan Selkis, founder and CEO of the Messari cryptographic research company, describes the latest Bitcoin trajectory and discusses the fundamentals of the recent price spike, which amounted to 5 $ 000.
"I think our current situation is similar to 2016. There is a lot of optimism behind the scenes of retail investment circles and in particular institutional investment circles. And we look at three things in terms of long-term factors.
One is this generational gold spinning in digital gold, which is Bitcoin, which could represent an asset turnover of $ 30 trillion in general, the millennium being inherent to their parents' savings, and this transfer of wealth takes place.
If a fraction of this sum ends up training in cryptographic assets, you speak of a peak valuation. It's a piece of several decades. In the shorter term, you see much greater institutional interest: Fidelity, the New York Stock Exchange and ICE. A number of other very well funded and well funded companies offer institutional level tools that will finally allow professional investors to leave the industry and make big investments, similar to the ones we saw last night.
The second key factor that Selkis sees is the ratio of realized value for mined rewards.
"One of the most interesting indicators we saw in December that started to reverse itself is the realized value ratio that our friends from CoinMetrics, a Messari data partner, really popularized. And the realized value of Bitcoin is the market value of the mined rewards that come into the offer over time. For the first time in years, since the depths of 2015, the realized value of Bitcoin has fallen below the market value …
The cumulative amount of funds invested, whether through mining or direct purchases, was greater than the current market capitalization. For the first time since 2015, this figure has fallen below one. This means that for the first time, your accumulated investments were north of market capitalization. Historically, this has been completely broken down in the other way.
In 2017, you have seen multiples of realized value getting into the Bitcoin asset in particular. And you saw that in all the assets. So I followed the situation, and the balance was finally restored, and we have seen an acceleration in its acceleration over the last few weeks. "
According to Mr. Selkis, the transactional cryptographic element that feeds the market is less about payments than the asset class guarantee.
"[This] is probably the third downwind we see now – this emergence of a crypto loan market. Instead of this being a dead asset, you can actually lend and use it as collateral. And we started seeing bands like Genesis Capital here in New York, who launched a $ 1 billion loan in 2018, as well as more retail-oriented apps like Maker and BlockFi, also in New York. "
The question of a billion dollars is scalability. After Ethereum choked on Crypto Kitties in December 2017, a popular game with too many players and asking the network to handle it, the industry was looking for the perfect sizing solution. As developers seek to refine and supplement their concepts, more and more blockchains compete with each other, such as EOS and Tron.
"Most assets and platforms that are trying to compete with Bitcoin and Ethereum are facing a tough battle, and we have never seen much use. I would say that Ethereum is probably next to Bitcoin in the only other protocol and digital asset to have reached a critical mass of users, and an ecosystem of developers relying on this asset and this protocol. "
A Bitcoin bull, Selkis has tweeted that he sees Bitcoin surpass $ 50,000.
Without setting a deadline for his prediction, he says the road will continue to be bumpy.
"I do not think we'll ever see a lack of volatility for this asset because there's no central bank that controls Bitcoin."
According to Selkis, Crypto's flagship application will look the same for many years.
"I think the flagship application for Bitcoin and for other digital assets, while the product market is suitable for some of these other applications, will continue to be speculative. And you will see trade, asset managers, and early-stage investors reap the bulk of the benefits before the masses manifest themselves in five to ten years. "
You can view the full interview here.
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