Michael McCaul's re-election campaign: the quest of a Republican to avoid a "Texodus"

Electoral Awakening

During the election night, McCaul was shocked, confident in the ballot that had won him with about 57 percent of the votes cast against Mike Siegel, Austin's attorney and first congressional candidate, instead of the four-point vote. "Ignorance is a happiness," joked McCaul.

McCaul has barely escaped, but the others have not been so lucky. The mid-term elections of President Donald Trump have shattered Republicans in the country's suburbs, including two in Texas, including a Democrat since George H. W. Bush won in 1966.

"I think some of my colleagues have fallen into the trap of being complacent and that they have not worked and that has shown," McCaul said. "And they lost."

McCaul's actions suggest that he knows his previous campaigns were a bit apathetic. He did not have to do much campaigning in the past: he won his first race in 2004 in a district recently turned into a gerrymander by defeating a libertarian candidate by more than 60 points. He won his next seven races by an average of 20. A former McCaul campaign staff member told CNN: "I've never seen him knock on a door". Now, his campaign sends pictures of him.

An eye on the issues and the future

In his interview with CNN, McCaul did not mention the name of a potential Democratic opponent. His campaign manager, Evan Albertson, said that he would be a "liberal extremist Pelosi or AOC".

But at an event organized by the Chamber of Commerce this week, questions that could enlighten her campaign were highlighted: improving cancer research in children, fighting the scourge of human trafficking and extol the benefits of the 2017 tax redesign.

His buttoned style could not have been more different than the leader of his party. McCaul said he prefers the approach of a "statesman who does not have to go on TV saying crazy things". He said that he always considered public service as a "noble profession" that can make the world a better place. "I do not associate myself with rhetoric on both sides of the aisle," McCaul said.

"I guess I was not tough enough," said McCaul, after pointing out his opposition to the government's ban on Muslims and the separation of families on the US-Mexico border. When asked if immigration hawks, as the White House's senior advisor, Stephen Miller, did not like that, McCaul responded "bingo" and asked him if he was not a fan. is pressed the nose.

McCaul hopes soon to chair the Foreign Affairs Committee; the minority life in the House is less powerful and less amusing. The congressman said that his ability to retain his seat had "always been a factor" in the decision-making process allowing him to stay in Congress, but McCaul said that he would always be willing to join the executive branch. at some point "depending on the position.

"But I have to live in the reality in which I find myself and it's that I'm running for reelection," McCaul said.

Dems plots the 2020 offensive

The Democrats are targeting McCaul for a good reason.

There are about a thousand new Texans every day, about half of them are babies, about a quarter are national migrants and about a quarter are international migrants, according to Lloyd Potter, veteran demographer of the University of Texas at San Antonio. Between 2017 and 2018, four of the top 10 fastest growing counties in the country were in the state of Lone Star, including Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio or its suburbs.

In recent years, Latin American, Afro-American and Asian populations in McCaul District have exploded. Between 2012 and 2017, Latinos went from 26% to 29% of the population while more than 60,000 of them moved there or were born, according to American Community Survey figures reported by Potter. The white population increased, but more slowly than other breeds, and decreased as a percentage of the district from 58% to 52%.

Texas Democrat Rep. Marc Veasey said that the population explosion could give the state two or three more seats in Congress after the next census. But he added that the rapid evolution of demographics was one of the reasons that these suburban seats became competitive after so long, saying that voters "are really tired of this president – and that Republicans do not repress much of what they regard as bad the country. "

Siegel, a physician, Dr. Pritesh Gandhi, and Shannon Hutcheson, a lawyer whose clients include Planned Parenthood, all aspire to become the Democratic candidate to face McCaul. Democrats are confident that Trump's combination at the top of the list, fundamental demographic changes and a message focused on health care and the protection of the Affordable Care Act will reverse the seat.

Democrats also do not think McCaul is known even after winning eight terms and denouncing his claims of an exaggerated reinvigorated field campaign. According to a copy of McCaul's program of the last two weeks obtained by CNN, the congressman rang an event, but canceled it. When CNN visited the block, which included a house emblazoned with a Trump flag, two potential voters said that they did not recognize McCaul's name, but that they would vote for him for so long that he was republican.

Democrats pledge to over-perform McCaul because they can never elevate him; He is one of the richest members of Congress. Recently, during the sweltering heat of August in Austin, Hutcheson took his two daughters and his brother-in-law to knock on dozens of doors. Hutcheson described his speech as a mother motivated by Trump's election and his desire to finally give women a seat at the table.

"It's a hard thing to do," said Hutcheson. "This is not for sensitive souls, but I do it because I absolutely believe that we must stand up, we must stand up against hatred, we must defend the families of workers who are not listened to." and are not represented – families like the one in which I grew up. "

It was her first door-to-door experience and she worked hard – and succeeded – in winning votes for the primary. In the green area, she even met deer, she opened her arms and said, "I'm running for Congress!"

CORRECTION: This story has been updated to correctly identify the number of seats targeted by Democrats in the 2018 mid-term election in Texas.