Michigan coronavirus cases have flattened in recent weeks, but not yet bursting sparkling

From a certain perspective on a certain graph, the Michigan coronavirus curve looks almost flat.

When you look at the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases, Michigan’s chart dipped in early June, after home orders had been in place for some time. Then, it rose slowly and seems to reach a plateau in late July or early August.

From August 1 to August 13, the seven-day moving average of new cases remained between 648 and 760, a change of less than 100 cases. This is less variable than the seven-day averages in July, when they varied by 407 cases during the month, or in June, when they varied by 199 cases.

“We have been cautiously optimistic that we see a plateau in cases over the past few weeks, after increases in June and July,” said Bob Wheaton, public information officer for the Department of Health and Human Services of the Michigan.

Yet with that optimism comes some apprehension from infectious disease experts who say Michigan’s numbers are concerning on several levels despite the apparent plateau.

“This is not what we hope to achieve. As epidemiologists, we would like to see a steady downward trend, ”said Dr. Teena Chopra, professor of internal medicine and infectious diseases at Wayne State University School of Medicine.

The numbers of cases are still too high

“I would rather the numbers were lower,” Aubree Gordon, associate professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan’s School of Public Health, said in an interview.

She pointed out that at the current rate of cases, “a lot of schools say they absolutely can’t be 100% in person or have in-person instruction at all. I think a level of coronavirus that does not overwhelm hospitals but prevents education in our state is not acceptable.

Michigan schools are permitted to open in the current phases, but some schools have chosen to start the year online. If Michigan falls back into Phase 3 of economic reopening, the phase the state was in when the stay-at-home order was in place, schools cannot provide in-person instruction.

One of the main reasons the number of cases is large is the capacity of the hospital. Currently, the state has 655 hospital patients, far fewer than the nearly 4,000 hospital patients at the peak of the virus earlier this year.

But Chopra has warned that we are heading into the regular flu season and when that combines with cases of the coronavirus, hospital space could again be a concern. And the mini-epidemics we’re seeing statewide, she said, are increasing hospitalizations.

It reflects spikes in different parts of the state

And that’s something the daily count doesn’t reflect; how the virus plays out differently in different parts of the state.

It’s not as if a day with 498 cases means there are six in each of Michigan’s 83 counties. Instead, Chopra said, what we are seeing are small spikes due to local outbreaks.

“Yes, they are stabilizing,” she said of the number of local cases.

“But we have also seen an increase in local epidemics.”

Related: The number of coronaviruses in the upper peninsula has more than doubled in the past four weeks

At a press conference last week, Michigan Medical Director Dr Joneigh Khaldun gave the example of what they are seeing in the Detroit area, which averages 50 cases per million per day. The city itself, she said, averaged 26 cases per million per day, while areas around it increased that number. Macomb County, for example, had 82 cases per million people per day.

“We continue to be cautiously optimistic about our progress in the right direction as a state. But the spread of COVID-19 continues to be different by region, ”she said.

The number of people who test positive is over 3%

The number of people tested in Michigan per day has changed over time, but it’s not that we are just finding more cases because we are testing more people.

We know this because of what’s called the case positivity rate; the number of positive cases we find divided by the number of tests performed.

Consider this: two days can both show 500 positive cases, but on one day it could be 500 tests out of 20,000, a 2.5% positivity rate, and the other day it could be 500 tests out of 10,000. , a positivity rate of 5%. The first example is a much better result, even though the top 500 positive count was the same every day.

Experts such as Chopra and Khaldun said they were looking for a case positivity rate of less than 3%.

“There is a positivity rate that we hope to keep below 3%,” Chopra said.

Throughout the pandemic, Michigan’s positivity rate fluctuated and reliably remained below 3% for a time in June.

But as of Aug. 16, Michigan’s rate was 3.5%. During the August plateau, it fell twice below 3%, on August 7 and 11, when it was 2.9%.

No rest on this plateau

So what to do in an age when case numbers might look better than they are if you remove a few layers of data?

The same that health experts have been saying for months. Wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid gathering in large groups.

Although Khaldun said she was cautiously optimistic about the state’s data, she said, “What we also know is that even if the trend stabilizes, it only takes a few people to create an epidemic. and that the disease spreads rapidly in a community. We still see outbreaks statewide in every region, and these occur in many different settings. “

Without a vaccine, Chopra said, the Michiganders must observe social distancing and wear masks.

“We are on a plateau, but we did not come out of the woods. There is no vaccine yet. We must remember that there is no vaccine and that the virus exists. The virus has not magically disappeared from the face of this earth, ”Chopra said.

In other words, even on a case set, the Michiganders can’t be complacent.

MLive reporter Julie Mack contributed to this story.

Note: This story has been corrected to reflect that Macomb County has 82 cases per million people per day.

COVID-19 PREVENTION TIPS:

In addition to washing your hands regularly and not touching your face, officials recommend practicing social distancing, assuming anyone can carry the virus.

Health officials say you should stay at least 6 feet away from others and work from home if possible.

Use disinfectant wipes or disinfectant aerosol cleaners on frequently touched surfaces in your home (doorknobs, faucets, counters) and take hand sanitizer with you when you go to places like stores.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer has also issued executive orders requiring people to wear face masks over their mouths and noses in crowded indoor and outdoor public spaces. See an explanation of what this means here.

Additional information is available at Michigan.gov/Coronavirus and CDC.gov/Coronavirus.

For more data on COVID-19 in Michigan, visit https://www.mlive.com/coronavirus/data/.

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